AI correctly predicted the Bałtyk Koszalin win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Bałtyk Koszalin Bałtyk Koszalin ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bałtyk Koszalin | 40.4% | 39.1% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.5% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Gedania Gdansk | 30.1% | 34.4% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Bałtyk Koszalin win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bałtyk Koszalin win 3–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bałtyk Koszalin 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Gedania Gdansk 30.1%
- xG · Bałtyk Koszalin 1.41 — Gedania Gdansk 1.19
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bałtyk Koszalin 2.27 · Draw 3.35 · Gedania Gdansk 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Bałtyk Koszalin 39.1% · Draw 26.5% · Gedania Gdansk 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bałtyk Koszalin 2.27 · Draw 3.35 · Gedania Gdansk 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Bałtyk Koszalin 39.1% · Draw 26.5% · Gedania Gdansk 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bałtyk Koszalin win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "272978ab9b2a356d25e3667497a76ebb0a4ca247e33a836775cdb569c490420a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Gedania Gdansk",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Gedania Gdansk"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0138,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.391,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.27
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.27,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.56,
"market_odds": 2.27,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -3.6,
"value_pct": -8.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin or Gedania Gdansk",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gedania Gdansk",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin or Gedania Gdansk",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -8.1,
"implied_prob": 44.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 2.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gedania Gdansk",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.4,
"draw": 26.5,
"home": 39.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:02:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 12:33:42",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.1,
"gap_pp": 1.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.5,
"gap_pp": 2.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.4,
"gap_pp": -4.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.94,
"gap_pp": -12.74,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.06,
"gap_pp": 12.74,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.35,
"early": 3.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.5,
"early": 1.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.94,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.06,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0174,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5755
},
"p_final": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1862,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2121,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.2,
"text": "+21.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2121,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10340.89,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0146,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0469,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3782
},
"p_final": 0.3782,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0469,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6163
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1679,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.8,
"text": "+16.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2195,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1679,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10151.11,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0986,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0844,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.4,
"text": "-8.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"sort_key": 1778.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.26,
"hero_label": "Gedania Gdansk",
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"market_team": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.26,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin 1.41 xG vs Gedania Gdansk 1.19 \u2192 Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin 40.4%",
"Market: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin ~39.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.32,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"market_prob": 39.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Gedania Gdansk",
"market_prob": 34.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.34,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.34,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Gedania Gdansk",
"market_prob_pct": 34.4,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.3,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin 1.41 xG vs Gedania Gdansk 1.19 \u2192 Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin 40.4%",
"Market: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin ~39.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.26,
"hero_label": "Gedania Gdansk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Gedania Gdansk",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.32,
"edge_pp": 1.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.94,
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.26,
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gedania Gdansk",
"market_prob_pct": 34.4,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin (39.1%).",
"Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.76,
"closing_odds": 2.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.76,
"entry_odds": 2.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gedania-gdansk",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gedania Gdansk",
"away_team_id": 18385,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18385.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gedania Gdansk",
"away_team_public_id": "2A8pll0HFCXNX6",
"away_team_slug": "gedania-gdansk",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568802,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"home_team_id": 16245,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16245.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"home_team_public_id": "2mUrbo5JZvQuRk",
"home_team_slug": "batyk-koszalin",
"ht.home_team_slug": "batyk-koszalin",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Grupa II",
"league_id": 781,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Grupa II",
"league_public_id": "3zSCpGHchE7TXd",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3Kvdv3tkqxvG2p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4211,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.159,
"implied_prob": 0.344,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.344,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.391
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.326
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2869,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0844,
"implied_prob": 0.265,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.344,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.391
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2733
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4407,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.344,
"draw": 0.265,
"home": 0.391
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3971
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": -0.0864,
"ev": -0.223,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0149,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.0811,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1545,
"alpha_yes": 0.2125,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0934,
"edge_yes": -0.0934,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1679,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0469,
"ev_yes": -0.2195,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"implied_no": 0.3646,
"implied_yes": 0.6354,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0469,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3782
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6163
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3782,
"p_final_yes": 0.6163,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2039,
"alpha_under": 0.1483,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.29,
"edge_over": -0.1139,
"edge_under": 0.1139,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"ev_under": 0.2121,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0429,
"implied_over": 0.5959,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5995,
"implied_under": 0.4041,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4005,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5755
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4179
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5755,
"p_final_under": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0146,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0469,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3782
},
"p_final": 0.3782,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0469,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6163
}
},
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5755
},
"p_final": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1139,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.4041,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568802,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2121,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3646,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gedania Gdansk",
"home": "Ba\u0142tyk Koszalin"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076907,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.4041,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568802,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:02:16.088080+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Bałtyk Koszalin & Gedania Gdansk!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
III liga – Grupa II — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Luzino | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stargard Szczeciński | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Flota Świnoujście | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noteć Czarnków | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Gedania Gdansk | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Grom Nowy Staw | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Kotwica Kórnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Unia Swarzędz | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 16 | Elana Toruń | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzino | 9 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 22 |
| 2 | Polonia Środa | 9 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 | Grom Nowy Staw | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Gedania Gdansk | 9 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 | Stargard Szczeciński | 9 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kotwica Kórnik | 9 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Kalisz | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 11 | Noteć Czarnków | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Flota Świnoujście | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 9 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Unia Swarzędz | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Elana Toruń | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lipno Stęszew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 9 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |