Sep 11, 2026 - 17:57
2
1.40
1
1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
AI correctly predicted the Podlasie Biała Podlaska win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 39.9% | 44.9% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.9% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| KS Wieczysta Kraków II | 30.6% | 31.2% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Podlasie Biała Podlaska more conservatively (34.4% vs model 39.9%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · KS Wieczysta Kraków II 30.6%
- xG · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.40 — KS Wieczysta Kraków II 1.20
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:27 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.00 · Draw 3.75 · KS Wieczysta Kraków II 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Kraków II 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.00 · Draw 3.75 · KS Wieczysta Kraków II 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Kraków II 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–1 KS Wieczysta Kraków II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1433,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1433,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska 1.40 xG vs KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II 1.20 \u2192 Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska 39.9%",
"Market: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska ~44.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"market_prob": 44.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.59,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob": 31.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.87,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.94,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska 1.40 xG vs KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II 1.20 \u2192 Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska 39.9%",
"Market: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska ~44.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.54,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.95,
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"market_prob_pct": 44.89,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.54,
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.59,
"edge_pp": -0.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II",
"market_prob_pct": 31.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska (44.9%).",
"Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.67,
"closing_odds": 3.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.67,
"entry_odds": 3.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II",
"away_team_id": 27334,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II",
"away_team_public_id": "5h7yKU8po5exc0",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568165,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"home_team_id": 16269,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16269.webp",
"home_team_name": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"home_team_public_id": "4vE9gLmG78Z7XS",
"home_team_slug": "podlasie-biaa-podlaska",
"ht.home_team_slug": "podlasie-biaa-podlaska",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III Liga - Kumpulan 4",
"league_id": 783,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/783.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Kumpulan 4",
"league_public_id": "0Webjq2gkya99L",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 17:57:00",
"public_id": "0TtFhwoVYcPUL0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4458,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.3117,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4489
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.309
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0451,
"implied_prob": 0.2394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4489
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2546
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4489
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4284
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0417,
"ev": -0.12,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1003,
"ev": -0.2006,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1607,
"alpha_yes": 0.2209,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.54,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0687,
"edge_yes": -0.0687,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1014,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0633,
"ev_yes": -0.1638,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"implied_no": 0.3883,
"implied_yes": 0.6117,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3969
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2209,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6146,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3969,
"p_final_yes": 0.5988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2075,
"alpha_under": 0.1509,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.565,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.1064,
"edge_under": 0.1064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.112,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0404,
"implied_over": 0.5884,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5898,
"implied_under": 0.4116,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4102,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0224,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5898,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5674
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4265
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5674,
"p_final_under": 0.4265,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1433,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.3854,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3969
},
"p_final": 0.3969,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0633,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2209,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6146,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5988
}
},
"edge": 0.0687,
"ev": 0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.3883,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0163,
"market_prob": 0.4102,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0224,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5898,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5674
},
"p_final": 0.4265,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0404,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4265
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1064,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568165,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.3883,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.3883,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "KS Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w II",
"home": "Podlasie Bia\u0142a Podlaska"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1433,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568165,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:47:06.226347+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
III Liga - Kumpulan 4 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Naprzód | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdrój | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Hetman Zamosc | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Kraków II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarosław | 9 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Naprzód | 10 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 26 |
| 6 | Hetman Zamosc | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 19 |
| 9 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdrój | 10 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Kraków II | 10 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
