The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Gateshead at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Gateshead Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead | 40.9% | 6.4% | +34.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 10.3% | +19.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Newcastle United | 29.7% | 83.2% | -53.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Newcastle United's win probability at 83.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 53.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Gateshead; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gateshead by 53.5 percentage points (94.4% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 20:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gateshead 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Newcastle United 29.6%
- xG · Gateshead 1.42 — Newcastle United 1.18
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gateshead 13.87 · Draw 8.61 · Newcastle United 1.07
- Implied 1X2 · Gateshead 6.4% · Draw 10.3% · Newcastle United 83.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gateshead 13.87 · Draw 8.61 · Newcastle United 1.07
- Implied 1X2 · Gateshead 6.4% · Draw 10.3% · Newcastle United 83.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (54 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Gateshead & Newcastle United!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Dunia. Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab Ramalan
