The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Karpaty at 48.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Karpaty Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 48.4% | 61.5% | -13.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.8% | 23.2% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Veres Rivne | 23.8% | 15.2% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Karpaty's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.4%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Karpaty than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Karpaty; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Karpaty by 13.1 percentage points (61.5% vs model 48.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Karpaty 48.4% · Draw 27.8% · Veres Rivne 23.8%
- xG · Karpaty 1.62 — Veres Rivne 1.08
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Karpaty 1.51 · Draw 4.00 · Veres Rivne 6.09
- Implied 1X2 · Karpaty 61.5% · Draw 23.2% · Veres Rivne 15.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Karpaty 1.51 · Draw 4.00 · Veres Rivne 6.09
- Implied 1X2 · Karpaty 61.5% · Draw 23.2% · Veres Rivne 15.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
34/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Karpaty 1–1 Veres Rivne
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.1667,
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0639,
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"text": "-6.4%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 50.6,
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"tier": "bad_ev",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Veres Rivne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.12,
"hero_label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 61.5,
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"model_team": "Karpaty",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 48.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (48.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Karpaty \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.12,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.62,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.62,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.62 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Veres Rivne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 48.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (48.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Karpaty \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Karpaty 1.62 xG vs Veres Rivne 1.08 \u2192 Karpaty 48.4%",
"Market: Karpaty ~61.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Veres Rivne \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Karpaty, but sharp money moved toward Veres Rivne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.12,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob": 61.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 27.8,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob": 23.81,
"label": "Veres Rivne",
"market_prob": 15.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.27,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.27,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.31,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.4,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 61.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Veres Rivne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Karpaty\u0027s win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 48.4%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Karpaty",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 61.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.1,
"model_prob_pct": 48.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Karpaty 1.62 xG vs Veres Rivne 1.08 \u2192 Karpaty 48.4%",
"Market: Karpaty ~61.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Veres Rivne \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Karpaty, but sharp money moved toward Veres Rivne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.12,
"hero_label": "Karpaty",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Veres Rivne odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Veres Rivne, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Karpaty than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Karpaty than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Veres Rivne, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Karpaty more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Veres Rivne has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 20.6 pp (at 48.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 20.6,
"max_prob_pct": 48.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Karpaty",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Karpaty higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.12,
"edge_pp": -13.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 61.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.58,
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.56,
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Veres Rivne",
"market_prob_pct": 15.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Karpaty (61.5%).",
"Veres Rivne has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.7%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Karpaty, Market \u2192 Karpaty, Recent sharp money \u2192 Veres Rivne.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Veres Rivne (swing 7.80 \u2192 6.30 \u2192 7.00) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"6.79",
"6.09"
],
"display": "7.80 \u2192 6.30 \u2192 7.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "6.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
6.09,
7.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,6.4",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.09"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Veres Rivne while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Veres Rivne",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "Veres Rivne",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "veres-rivne",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Veres Rivne",
"away_team_id": 6501,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6501.webp",
"away_team_name": "Veres Rivne",
"away_team_public_id": "3ixmIJhDBf8jKu",
"away_team_slug": "veres-rivne",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565485,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Karpaty",
"home_team_id": 3617,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3617.webp",
"home_team_name": "Karpaty",
"home_team_public_id": "1cHOa7JSKAJfRM",
"home_team_slug": "karpaty",
"ht.home_team_slug": "karpaty",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Ukraine",
"league_public_id": "5xBRI8YbkQEO0c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:30:00",
"public_id": "59l47Jsj0wKkR5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lviv",
"venue_name": "Ukraina Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1743,
"best_odd": 6.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.1525,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1525,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.6152
},
"model_prob": 0.2383,
"p_final": 0.1675
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1863,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1525,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.6152
},
"model_prob": 0.2781,
"p_final": 0.2408
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4815,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0634,
"ev": -0.1667,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1525,
"draw": 0.2322,
"home": 0.6152
},
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"p_final": 0.5518
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.09,
"edge": 0.0741,
"ev": 0.4515,
"implied_prob": 0.1642,
"model_prob": 0.2383
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2781
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.1787,
"ev": -0.2698,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.4836
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3335,
"alpha_yes": 0.3032,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0931,
"edge_yes": 0.0931,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1254,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0199,
"implied_no": 0.5481,
"implied_yes": 0.4519,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3335,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3032,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4828
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5145,
"p_final_yes": 0.4828,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3434,
"alpha_under": 0.3434,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.96,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0127,
"edge_under": 0.0127,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0639,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0691,
"ev_under": -0.0318,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0529,
"implied_over": 0.5187,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5186,
"implied_under": 0.4813,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4814,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3434,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.5186,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3434,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.4857
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5143,
"p_final_under": 0.4857,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4515,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2263,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 48.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (48.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Karpaty \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Veres Rivne, but the model still strongly favours Karpaty.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2781,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4836,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.54
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.1525,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2383,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Veres Rivne",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0634,
"ev": -0.1667,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Karpaty"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3032,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0271,
"market_prob": 0.4558,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3335,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"p_final": 0.4828,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0199,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3032,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4828
}
},
"edge": 0.0931,
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3434,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0043,
"market_prob": 0.4814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3434,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.5186,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"p_final": 0.4857,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0529,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3434,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.4857
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.4813,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1565485,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2263,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2383,
"draw": 0.2781,
"home": 0.4836
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Veres Rivne",
"home": "Karpaty"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.123334,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4836,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2698,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565485,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:30:30.857474+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Karpaty & Veres Rivne!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Ukraine — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
