The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Oţelul at 55.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Oţelul Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-1, 3-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | 55.5% | 25.9% | +29.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 20.4% | 29.7% | -9.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Dinamo Bucuresti | 24.1% | 44.4% | -20.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Oţelul's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 29.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Oţelul; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Oţelul by 29.6 percentage points (25.9% vs model 55.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Oţelul 55.5% · Draw 20.4% · Dinamo Bucuresti 24.0%
- xG · Oţelul 2.51 — Dinamo Bucuresti 1.66
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Oţelul 3.69 · Draw 3.21 · Dinamo Bucuresti 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Oţelul 25.9% · Draw 29.7% · Dinamo Bucuresti 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Oţelul 3.69 · Draw 3.21 · Dinamo Bucuresti 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Oţelul 25.9% · Draw 29.7% · Dinamo Bucuresti 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
36/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (86%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
10/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.69
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Oţelul 1–1 Dinamo Bucuresti
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 18:04:42",
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"disagreement_level": "strong",
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{
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 29.6,
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"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010490999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees O\u0163elul at 55.5% vs market 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies O\u0163elul as the stronger side (55.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "O\u0163elul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "41 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 41,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0491,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.9,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 86% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7272727272727273,
"evidence": {
"score": 58,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (30 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (86%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 41,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 29.64,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 29.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.66,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 86.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.51,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.51,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.51 \u00b7 Away xG 1.66 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +86%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "O\u0163elul",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010490999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees O\u0163elul at 55.5% vs market 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies O\u0163elul as the stronger side (55.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "O\u0163elul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "41 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 41,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0491,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.9,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 86% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: O\u0163elul 2.51 xG vs Dinamo Bucuresti 1.66 \u2192 O\u0163elul 55.5%",
"Market: Dinamo Bucuresti ~25.9% implied",
"Market Steam: O\u0163elul +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans O\u0163elul, but market pricing diverges by 30 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 29.64,
"fair_prob": 55.51,
"label": "O\u0163elul",
"market_prob": 25.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob": 20.43,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.34,
"fair_prob": 24.06,
"label": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
"market_prob": 44.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 78.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 75.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 24.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 29.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.51,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "O\u0163elul",
"market_prob_pct": 25.87,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "O\u0163elul"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates O\u0163elul\u0027s win probability at 55.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 29.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 29.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "O\u0163elul",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 29.6,
"model_prob_pct": 55.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 41,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: O\u0163elul 2.51 xG vs Dinamo Bucuresti 1.66 \u2192 O\u0163elul 55.5%",
"Market: Dinamo Bucuresti ~25.9% implied",
"Market Steam: O\u0163elul +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans O\u0163elul, but market pricing diverges by 30 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.64,
"hero_label": "O\u0163elul",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 29.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 31.4 pp (at 55.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 31.4,
"max_prob_pct": 55.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "O\u0163elul",
"largest_gap_pp": 29.6,
"lead": "The model rates O\u0163elul considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 29.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 29.64,
"edge_pp": 29.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "O\u0163elul",
"market_prob_pct": 25.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.31,
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -20.34,
"edge_pp": -20.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dinamo Bucuresti (25.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 O\u0163elul, Market \u2192 Dinamo Bucuresti, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.1,
"closing_odds": 3.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.1,
"entry_odds": 3.69,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/11",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "O\u0163elul",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "O\u0163elul",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
"away_team_id": 635,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/635.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
"away_team_slug": "dinamo-bucuresti",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1565204,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "O\u0163elul",
"home_team_id": 6886,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6886.webp",
"home_team_name": "O\u0163elul",
"home_team_slug": "otelul",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I Romania",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-31 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Galati",
"venue_name": "Stadionul Otelul"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3125,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0637,
"ev": -0.1823,
"implied_prob": 0.444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.444,
"draw": 0.2974,
"home": 0.2587
},
"model_prob": 0.2403,
"p_final": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2582,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.2974,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.444,
"draw": 0.2974,
"home": 0.2587
},
"model_prob": 0.2044,
"p_final": 0.2734
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.444,
"draw": 0.2974,
"home": 0.2587
},
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"p_final": 0.3081
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.2248,
"ev": -0.4834,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.2403
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.1071,
"ev": -0.3438,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.2044
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": 0.2843,
"ev": 1.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.5553
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.17,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0491,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1368,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010490999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees O\u0163elul at 55.5% vs market 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies O\u0163elul as the stronger side (55.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "O\u0163elul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "41 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced O\u0163elul, but the model still strongly favours O\u0163elul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 41,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0491,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.9,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 86% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.752,
"draw_prob": 0.2044,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5553,
"over_prob": 0.786,
"total_xg": 4.17,
"under_prob": 0.214,
"xg_diff": 0.85
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.1368,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "O\u0163elul"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.752,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.786,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565204,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1368,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2403,
"draw": 0.2044,
"home": 0.5553
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
"home": "O\u0163elul"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.091158,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "O\u0163elul",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.69,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5553,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2710027100271003,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0491,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+104.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565204,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-31T18:29:39.174224+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga I Romania — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Rapid | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploieşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | FCSB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rapid | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | UTA Arad | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploieşti | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 | FCSB | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Oţelul | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 10 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid | 10 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 21 |
| 2 | Farul Constanța | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 3 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 3.6 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 23 |
| 4 | FCSB | 10 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Voluntari | 10 | 2.9 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 8 |
| 6 | Csikszereda | 10 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Botoșani | 10 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 11 |
| 8 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 15 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploieşti | 10 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 19 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 10 | 1.4 | 3.6 | -2.2 | 13 |
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 13 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 14 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 15 | UTA Arad | 10 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 16 | Oţelul | 10 | — | — | — | 10 |
