AI correctly predicted the York win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 York York ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 43.2% | 56.5% | -13.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.4% | 22.3% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Gillingham | 31.4% | 21.2% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates York's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (York win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about York than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.30) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced York higher (56.5% vs model 43.2%, 13.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (York win 3–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · York 43.1% · Draw 25.4% · Gillingham 31.5%
- xG · York 1.79 — Gillingham 1.51
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · York 1.68 · Draw 4.26 · Gillingham 4.48
- Implied 1X2 · York 56.5% · Draw 22.3% · Gillingham 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · York 1.68 · Draw 4.26 · Gillingham 4.48
- Implied 1X2 · York 56.5% · Draw 22.3% · Gillingham 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result York win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
33/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
York win · York 3–0 Gillingham
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b62013eb3d1b17b73445e43aca94fcbdd0befecf7b70b3064cc7cf04580f3f27",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.51,
"away_win_prob": 0.3142,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.338,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.662,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2539,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.94,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.79,
"home_win_prob": 0.4319,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.641,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.359
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Gillingham",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Gillingham"
},
"away_xg": 1.51,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "York",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1338,
"edge_gap": 0.1166,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5652,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 25.4,
"home": 43.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.68
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.68,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "York Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.77,
"market_odds": 1.68,
"model_odds": 2.32,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": -16.4,
"value_pct": -27.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 77.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 83.3,
"no_prob": 33.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 66.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 66.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.51,
"home_expected": 1.79,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "York or Draw",
"prob": 68.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "York or Gillingham",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gillingham",
"prob": 56.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "York or Gillingham",
"pick_prob": 74.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.4,
"draw_pct": 25.4,
"home_pct": 43.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "York"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.3,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.9,
"over_prob": 64.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.3,
"under_prob": 35.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 40.7,
"implied_prob": 22.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Gillingham Win",
"model_prob": 31.4,
"odds": 4.48
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gillingham",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.19,
"draw": 22.29,
"home": 56.52
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:59:31",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:36:56",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "York",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.52,
"gap_pp": -13.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 43.13
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.29,
"gap_pp": 3.11,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.19,
"gap_pp": 10.27,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.6,
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 64.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.4,
"gap_pp": -4.5,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 35.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.52,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.26,
"early": 4.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.29,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.48,
"early": 4.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.19,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.15,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.1,
"model_prob_pct": 10.0,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.79,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.5636,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.662,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1211,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4175
},
"p_final": 0.5843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0791,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0475,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0475,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.5843
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1956,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.6,
"text": "-19.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1254,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.5,
"text": "+12.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1254,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 33.8,
"sort_key": 10262.86,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 66.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"p_final": 0.5953,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0128,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0594,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4083
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0576,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1456,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.6,
"text": "-14.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0576,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 64.1,
"sort_key": 10051.84,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 35.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1583,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0274,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "York",
"sort_key": 5221.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"alert_team": "York",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.33,
"hero_label": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 56.5,
"market_team": "York",
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"model_team": "York",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.51,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.79,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 1.51 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"steam_team": "York",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York 1.79 xG vs Gillingham 1.51 \u2192 York 43.2%",
"Market: York ~56.5% implied",
"Market Drift: York odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours York, but the market has moved away from York.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob": 43.19,
"label": "York",
"market_prob": 56.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"fair_prob": 25.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.23,
"fair_prob": 31.42,
"label": "Gillingham",
"market_prob": 21.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.63,
"fair_prob": 64.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.63,
"fair_prob": 35.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.45,
"fair_prob": 66.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.45,
"fair_prob": 33.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.19,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 56.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "York"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates York\u0027s win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "York",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.3,
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York 1.79 xG vs Gillingham 1.51 \u2192 York 43.2%",
"Market: York ~56.5% implied",
"Market Drift: York odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours York, but the market has moved away from York.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.33,
"hero_label": "York",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "York odds lengthened \u2191 +5.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about York than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about York than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors York more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on York (\u2191 +5.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on York."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.8 pp (at 43.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "York",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices York higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.33,
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.19,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 56.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.1,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.23,
"edge_pp": 10.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gillingham",
"market_prob_pct": 21.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on York.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers York (56.5%).",
"York odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.1%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 York, Market \u2192 York, while York odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on York (5.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.68",
"1.62",
"1.57"
],
"display": "1.68 \u2192 1.43 \u2192 1.65",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"pick_team": "York",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.65"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.57,
1.68,
1.65
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.65"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.57,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on York",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "York",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.65,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"summary": "Market moved away from York while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "York",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"pick_team": "York",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "York",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gillingham",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gillingham",
"away_team_id": 1347,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1347.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gillingham",
"away_team_public_id": "5V9XH2ndnPNthO",
"away_team_slug": "gillingham",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563778,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "York",
"home_team_id": 1828,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1828.webp",
"home_team_name": "York",
"home_team_public_id": "13YBAQBsbKmK6B",
"home_team_slug": "york",
"ht.home_team_slug": "york",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Dua Inggeris",
"league_id": 42,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/42.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Dua Inggeris",
"league_public_id": "20ois23TghHC4h",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4MZ1EciyiUiBJk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "York",
"venue_name": "York`s LNER Community Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1692,
"best_odd": 4.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": 0.0274,
"implied_prob": 0.2119,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.3147,
"p_final": 0.2293
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1907,
"best_odd": 4.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0059,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.2229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.254,
"p_final": 0.2288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4795,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2119,
"draw": 0.2229,
"home": 0.5652
},
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"p_final": 0.501
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.48,
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.4098,
"implied_prob": 0.2232,
"model_prob": 0.3147
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.26,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"model_prob": 0.254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.1639,
"ev": -0.2754,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.4313
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1918,
"alpha_yes": 0.211,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0945,
"edge_yes": 0.0945,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1956,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1211,
"ev_yes": 0.1254,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0475,
"implied_no": 0.4325,
"implied_yes": 0.5675,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1211,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4175
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0475,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.5843
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4175,
"p_final_yes": 0.5843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2256,
"alpha_under": 0.1641,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": 0.0563,
"edge_under": -0.0563,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0576,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0594,
"ev_under": -0.1456,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.5847,
"implied_over_mf": 0.582,
"implied_under": 0.4153,
"implied_under_mf": 0.418,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4083
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5953,
"p_final_under": 0.4083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1254,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1254,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates York at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies York as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "York",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side York \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from York, but the model still strongly favours York.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.662,
"draw_prob": 0.254,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4313,
"over_prob": 0.641,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"under_prob": 0.359,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0274,
"implied_prob": 0.2119,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3147,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gillingham",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "York"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.5636,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.662,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1211,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4175
},
"p_final": 0.5843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0475,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0475,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.5843
}
},
"edge": 0.0945,
"ev": 0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5675,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"p_final": 0.5953,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0594,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4083
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0563,
"ev": 0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1563778,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1254,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3147,
"draw": 0.254,
"home": 0.4313
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gillingham",
"home": "York"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.095467,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5675,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.662,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1583,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4313,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2754,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563778,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:59:33.220917+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk York & Gillingham!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Dua Inggeris — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | York | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Crewe | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Rotherham | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Colchester United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Cheltenham | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Walsall | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Rotherham | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Newport County | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Salford City | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Colchester United | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Crewe | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 22 | Exeter City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 6 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rotherham | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +1.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Northampton Town | 7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | +1.3 | 6 |
| 5 | Barnet | 7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | +1.0 | 15 |
| 6 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 7 | Crewe | 7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 9 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 12 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 12 | York | 7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 13 | Chesterfield | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 14 | Port Vale | 7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 5 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 6 |
| 16 | Tranmere | 7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 10 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 4 |
| 18 | Salford City | 7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Cheltenham | 7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 12 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 12 |
| 22 | Colchester United | 7 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 9 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 7 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 24 | Newport County | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
