AI correctly predicted the Písek win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Písek Písek ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Písek | 37.5% | 35.8% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| České Budějovice | 32.9% | 38.7% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates České Budějovice's win probability at 38.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Písek win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on České Budějovice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Písek higher (43.3% vs model 37.5%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Písek win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Písek 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · České Budějovice 32.9%
- xG · Písek 1.35 — České Budějovice 1.25
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Písek 2.53 · Draw 3.54 · České Budějovice 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Písek 35.8% · Draw 25.6% · České Budějovice 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Písek 2.53 · Draw 3.54 · České Budějovice 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Písek 35.8% · Draw 25.6% · České Budějovice 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Písek win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Písek win · Písek 3–2 České Budějovice
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0752,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"alert_team": "P\u00edsek",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates P\u00edsek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies P\u00edsek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "P\u00edsek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.82,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"steam_team": "P\u00edsek",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates P\u00edsek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies P\u00edsek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "P\u00edsek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: P\u00edsek 1.35 xG vs \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice 1.25 \u2192 P\u00edsek 37.5%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: P\u00edsek odds \u2191 +28.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours P\u00edsek, but the market has moved away from P\u00edsek.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.77,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "P\u00edsek",
"market_prob": 35.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.05,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"market_prob": 38.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.55,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.55,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.68,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.68,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"market_prob_pct": 38.67,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "P\u00edsek"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice\u0027s win probability at 38.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "P\u00edsek",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: P\u00edsek 1.35 xG vs \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice 1.25 \u2192 P\u00edsek 37.5%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: P\u00edsek odds \u2191 +28.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours P\u00edsek, but the market has moved away from P\u00edsek.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.82,
"hero_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "P\u00edsek odds lengthened \u2191 +28.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, P\u00edsek has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from P\u00edsek \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, P\u00edsek has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from P\u00edsek \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, P\u00edsek has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.77,
"edge_pp": 1.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "P\u00edsek",
"market_prob_pct": 35.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.05,
"edge_pp": 4.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.82,
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"market_prob_pct": 38.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from P\u00edsek \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice (35.8%).",
"However, P\u00edsek has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +28.3%, 4/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 P\u00edsek, Market \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice, while P\u00edsek odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on P\u00edsek (28.3%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.53",
"2.22",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.49 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"pick_team": "P\u00edsek",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.53,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: P\u00edsek odds \u2191 +28.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "P\u00edsek",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: P\u00edsek odds \u2191 +28.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from P\u00edsek while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "P\u00edsek",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "P\u00edsek",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "P\u00edsek",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"away_team_id": 3736,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3736.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"away_team_public_id": "4zoDLo3N3HIu6R",
"away_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562631,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "P\u00edsek",
"home_team_id": 7334,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7334.webp",
"home_team_name": "P\u00edsek",
"home_team_public_id": "4OVR6AWHVZSckj",
"home_team_slug": "pisek",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pisek",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga - CFL A Republik Czech",
"league_id": 348,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/348.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga - CFL A Republik Czech",
"league_public_id": "08KBAe5f5sGUAL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 16:00:00",
"public_id": "1NC2oJ4YxKZHqv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Pisek",
"venue_name": "Sports facility Pisek"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4108,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.3867,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3867,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3629
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3867,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2669
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4379,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3867,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3655
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.0986,
"ev": -0.2308,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": 0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1639,
"alpha_yes": 0.2253,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0668,
"edge_yes": -0.0668,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0643,
"ev_yes": -0.1716,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1072,
"implied_no": 0.3882,
"implied_yes": 0.6118,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4051
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5913
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4051,
"p_final_yes": 0.5913,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.1947,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0955,
"edge_under": 0.0955,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0418,
"implied_over": 0.5775,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5718,
"implied_under": 0.4225,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4282,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5526,
"p_final_under": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates P\u00edsek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies P\u00edsek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "P\u00edsek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from P\u00edsek, but the model still strongly favours P\u00edsek.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "P\u00edsek"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.3953,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4051
},
"p_final": 0.4051,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0643,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5913
}
},
"edge": 0.0668,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"p_final": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0955,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4225,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562631,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4225,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4225,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice",
"home": "P\u00edsek"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.072937,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0495,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562631,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:44.616308+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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