AI correctly predicted the Olimpia Grudziądz win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Olimpia Grudziądz Olimpia Grudziądz ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Olimpia Grudziądz win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1.21 — Olimpia Grudziądz 1.39
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Olimpia Grudziądz win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Olimpia Grudziądz win · Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0191,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
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"max_ev": -0.0191,
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"text": "-1.9%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"sort_key": 1795.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.29,
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"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"market_team": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0191,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.29,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0191,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1.21 xG vs Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz 1.39 \u2192 Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz 39.5%",
"Market: Zawisza Bydgoszcz ~34.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Zawisza Bydgoszcz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.29,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"market_prob": 39.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"market_prob": 34.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.45,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"market_prob_pct": 39.32,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Zawisza Bydgoszcz\u0027s win probability at 39.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1.21 xG vs Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz 1.39 \u2192 Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz 39.5%",
"Market: Zawisza Bydgoszcz ~34.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Zawisza Bydgoszcz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.29,
"hero_label": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Zawisza Bydgoszcz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Zawisza Bydgoszcz relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Zawisza Bydgoszcz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Zawisza Bydgoszcz above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Zawisza Bydgoszcz higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.29,
"edge_pp": -8.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"market_prob_pct": 39.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.59,
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.7,
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"market_prob_pct": 34.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Zawisza Bydgoszcz relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Zawisza Bydgoszcz (34.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz, Market \u2192 Zawisza Bydgoszcz, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.37,
"closing_odds": 2.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.37,
"entry_odds": 2.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "olimpia-grudziadz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"away_team_id": 4247,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4247.webp",
"away_team_name": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"away_team_public_id": "2PizXMYy7Xrq4C",
"away_team_slug": "olimpia-grudziadz",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1561671,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"home_team_id": 13843,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13843.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz",
"home_team_public_id": "5hdvtDfLGaoRwd",
"home_team_slug": "zawisza-bydgoszcz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "zawisza-bydgoszcz",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "II liga - East",
"league_id": 109,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/109.webp",
"league_name": "II liga - East",
"league_public_id": "5kAPo8EJElUiHj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 17:30:00",
"public_id": "0CH9aSmCQiHRf4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bydgoszcz",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.418,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3476,
"draw": 0.2592,
"home": 0.3932
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3674
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.284,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2592,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3476,
"draw": 0.2592,
"home": 0.3932
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2693
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.394,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.1491,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3476,
"draw": 0.2592,
"home": 0.3932
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3605
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": 0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.1134,
"ev": -0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1682,
"alpha_yes": 0.2313,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0445,
"edge_yes": -0.0445,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0283,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0745,
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1063,
"implied_no": 0.4125,
"implied_yes": 0.5875,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4207
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1063,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5766
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4207,
"p_final_yes": 0.5766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2196,
"alpha_under": 0.1997,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.075,
"edge_over": -0.076,
"edge_under": 0.076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1081,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"implied_over": 0.558,
"implied_over_mf": 0.557,
"implied_under": 0.442,
"implied_under_mf": 0.443,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2196,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5406
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4579
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5406,
"p_final_under": 0.4579,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Zawisza Bydgoszcz, but the model still strongly favours Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0191,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4207
},
"p_final": 0.4207,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0745,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1063,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5766
}
},
"edge": 0.0445,
"ev": 0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.443,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1081,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5406
},
"p_final": 0.4579,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
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"p_final": 0.4579
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.076,
"ev": 0.1396,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561671,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Olimpia Grudzi\u0105dz",
"home": "Zawisza Bydgoszcz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0191,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561671,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T17:29:08.033500+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
II liga - East — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hutnik Kraków | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 23 |
| 2 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 11 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 10 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa II | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 11 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 11 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 11 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 10 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 11 | Hutnik Kraków | 10 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 11 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Tychy 71 | 10 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 20 |
| 14 | Avia Świdnik | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 10 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 10 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 11 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 8 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 10 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 |
