The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Liptovský Mikuláš at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Liptovský Mikuláš Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liptovský Mikuláš | 38.0% | 45.6% | -7.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.8% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Zlaté Moravce | 32.4% | 29.6% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Liptovský Mikuláš's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Liptovský Mikuláš. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Liptovský Mikuláš; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Liptovský Mikuláš by 7.6 percentage points (45.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Zlaté Moravce 32.4%
- xG · Liptovský Mikuláš 1.36 — Zlaté Moravce 1.24
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Liptovský Mikuláš 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Zlaté Moravce 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 45.6% · Draw 24.8% · Zlaté Moravce 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Liptovský Mikuláš 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Zlaté Moravce 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 45.6% · Draw 24.8% · Zlaté Moravce 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Zlaté Moravce
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1443,
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},
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"max_ev": -0.034,
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},
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},
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],
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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{
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
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"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.57,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 1.36 xG vs Zlat\u00e9 Moravce 1.24 \u2192 Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 38.0%",
"Market: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 ~45.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob": 45.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"market_prob": 29.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.09,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.09,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 45.58,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161\u0027s win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 1.36 xG vs Zlat\u00e9 Moravce 1.24 \u2192 Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 38.0%",
"Market: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 ~45.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.57,
"hero_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.57,
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 45.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.83,
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.74,
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"market_prob_pct": 29.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 (45.6%).",
"Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zlate-moravce",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"away_team_id": 3553,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3553.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"away_team_public_id": "4Jiy0IcS6eTDSr",
"away_team_slug": "zlate-moravce",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1561133,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"home_team_id": 10536,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10536.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"home_team_public_id": "5gDSp1ByoQBaGy",
"home_team_slug": "liptovsky-mikulas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "liptovsky-mikulas",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "2. Liga Slovakia",
"league_id": 506,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/506.webp",
"league_name": "2. Liga Slovakia",
"league_public_id": "1xj18gall4XqEu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0tkxFh38Y6lW10",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Liptovsky Mikulas",
"venue_name": "Mestsky futbalovy stadion Milana Janeka"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4558
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3043
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.2476,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4558
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.399,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1443,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2476,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4257
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": 0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.095,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.1172,
"ev": -0.2355,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1604,
"alpha_yes": 0.2206,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0709,
"edge_yes": -0.0709,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0598,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1112,
"implied_no": 0.3851,
"implied_yes": 0.6149,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3951
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6006
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3951,
"p_final_yes": 0.6006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2046,
"alpha_under": 0.1488,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1112,
"edge_under": 0.1112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_over": 0.5932,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5976,
"implied_under": 0.4068,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.574,
"p_final_under": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
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"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1443,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0116,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
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"p_final": 0.3951
},
"p_final": 0.3951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0598,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0709,
"ev": 0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.3851,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4024,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"p_final": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1112,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561133,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"home": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561133,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:00:36.602380+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Liga Slovakia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Galanta | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Malženice | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Humenné | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 10 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Galanta | 10 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Malženice | 10 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Žilina II | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Humenné | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
