The model missed the final outcome (Inter Bratislava win 4–0).
The model had projected Petržalka at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Petržalka Inter Bratislava ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Bratislava | 32.4% | 33.3% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Petržalka | 38.0% | 39.8% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Inter Bratislava win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Petržalka; match finished Inter Bratislava
Market lesson
The full-time result was Inter Bratislava win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter Bratislava 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Petržalka 38.0%
- xG · Inter Bratislava 1.24 — Petržalka 1.36
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Inter Bratislava 2.75 · Draw 3.41 · Petržalka 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Bratislava 33.3% · Draw 26.9% · Petržalka 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Inter Bratislava 2.75 · Draw 3.41 · Petržalka 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Bratislava 33.3% · Draw 26.9% · Petržalka 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter Bratislava win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter Bratislava win · Inter Bratislava 4–0 Petržalka
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.102,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0572,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1253,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Petr\u017ealka",
"sort_key": 1785.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"alert_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"market_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petr\u017ealka at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petr\u017ealka as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petr\u017ealka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.102,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1253,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.73,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"steam_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petr\u017ealka at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petr\u017ealka as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petr\u017ealka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.102,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1253,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Bratislava 1.24 xG vs Petr\u017ealka 1.36 \u2192 Petr\u017ealka 38.0%",
"Market: Petr\u017ealka ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Petr\u017ealka odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Petr\u017ealka, but the market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.92,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Inter Bratislava",
"market_prob": 33.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Petr\u017ealka",
"market_prob": 39.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.77,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.77,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.86,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Petr\u017ealka"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Petr\u017ealka",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Bratislava 1.24 xG vs Petr\u017ealka 1.36 \u2192 Petr\u017ealka 38.0%",
"Market: Petr\u017ealka ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Petr\u017ealka odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Petr\u017ealka, but the market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Petr\u017ealka odds lengthened \u2191 +7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Petr\u017ealka has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Petr\u017ealka \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Petr\u017ealka has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Petr\u017ealka \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Petr\u017ealka has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.92,
"edge_pp": -0.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter Bratislava",
"market_prob_pct": 33.31,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.73,
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.82,
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Petr\u017ealka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Petr\u017ealka \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Petr\u017ealka (39.8%).",
"Petr\u017ealka odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.1%, 6/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Petr\u017ealka, Market \u2192 Petr\u017ealka, while Petr\u017ealka odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.33,
"closing_odds": 3.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.33,
"entry_odds": 3.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 32m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Petr\u017ealka (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.30",
"2.20",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.40 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 32m",
"pick_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.3,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/10 sportsbooks on Petr\u017ealka",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Petr\u017ealka while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Petr\u017ealka",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Petr\u017ealka",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "petrzalka",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Petr\u017ealka",
"away_team_id": 10538,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10538.webp",
"away_team_name": "Petr\u017ealka",
"away_team_public_id": "45tnUa9hfc6qc3",
"away_team_slug": "petrzalka",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1561126,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Inter Bratislava",
"home_team_id": 10547,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10547.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inter Bratislava",
"home_team_public_id": "61u70SGutpN3eh",
"home_team_slug": "inter-bratislava",
"ht.home_team_slug": "inter-bratislava",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "2. Liga Slovakia",
"league_id": 506,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/506.webp",
"league_name": "2. Liga Slovakia",
"league_public_id": "1xj18gall4XqEu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "16cKOujQmuCZTS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bratislava",
"venue_name": "Pasienky"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4379,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3983,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.3331
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2877,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.2686,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3983,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.3331
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2765
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4437,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3331,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3983,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.3331
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3289
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0544,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0092,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0399,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.2369,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0277,
"edge_yes": -0.0277,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0765,
"ev_yes": -0.1133,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1004,
"implied_no": 0.4283,
"implied_yes": 0.5717,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4336
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2369,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.1004,
"implied_prob": 0.5726,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5658
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4336,
"p_final_yes": 0.5658,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.23,
"alpha_under": 0.2091,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.745,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.96,
"edge_over": -0.0454,
"edge_under": 0.0454,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0957,
"ev_under": 0.0412,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0576,
"implied_over": 0.5274,
"implied_over_mf": 0.529,
"implied_under": 0.4726,
"implied_under_mf": 0.471,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.23,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.529,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5182
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4808
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5182,
"p_final_under": 0.4808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petr\u017ealka at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petr\u017ealka as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petr\u017ealka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Petr\u017ealka, but the model still strongly favours Petr\u017ealka.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.102,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1253,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0412,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4726,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Petr\u017ealka"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.4274,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4336
},
"p_final": 0.4336,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0765,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2369,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.1004,
"implied_prob": 0.5726,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5658
}
},
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4283,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.471,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.23,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.529,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5182
},
"p_final": 0.4808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0576,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4808
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0454,
"ev": 0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.4726,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561126,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0412,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Petr\u017ealka",
"home": "Inter Bratislava"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.102,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3983,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1253,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561126,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:00:31.165650+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Liga Slovakia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Galanta | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Tatran Prešov | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Malženice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Bratislava II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Humenné | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 10 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Galanta | 10 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Žilina II | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 10 | Malženice | 9 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 | Tatran Prešov | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Humenné | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
