The model missed the final outcome (Aragua FC win 2–5).
The model had projected Yaracuyanos FC at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Yaracuyanos FC Aragua FC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaracuyanos FC | 38.5% | 49.0% | -10.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.2% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Aragua FC | 31.9% | 22.8% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Yaracuyanos FC's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Aragua FC win 2–5.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Yaracuyanos FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Yaracuyanos FC; match finished Aragua FC
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Yaracuyanos FC by 10.5 percentage points (49.0% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yaracuyanos FC 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Aragua FC 31.9%
- xG · Yaracuyanos FC 1.37 — Aragua FC 1.23
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yaracuyanos FC 1.81 · Draw 3.14 · Aragua FC 3.89
- Implied 1X2 · Yaracuyanos FC 49.0% · Draw 28.2% · Aragua FC 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Yaracuyanos FC 1.81 · Draw 3.14 · Aragua FC 3.89
- Implied 1X2 · Yaracuyanos FC 49.0% · Draw 28.2% · Aragua FC 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aragua FC win · 2–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
47/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aragua FC win · Yaracuyanos FC 2–5 Aragua FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"pick": "Yes",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 19:59:26",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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}
},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
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"text": "+6.0%"
},
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"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10054.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2097,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0213,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.1,
"text": "-2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"sort_key": 1794.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.49,
"hero_label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"market_team": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2429,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yaracuyanos FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yaracuyanos FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yaracuyanos FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1560834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2097,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.49,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2429,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yaracuyanos FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yaracuyanos FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yaracuyanos FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1560834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2097,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yaracuyanos FC 1.37 xG vs Aragua FC 1.23 \u2192 Yaracuyanos FC 38.5%",
"Market: Yaracuyanos FC ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Yaracuyanos FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.49,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"market_prob": 48.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Aragua FC",
"market_prob": 22.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.9,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.98,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Yaracuyanos FC\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Yaracuyanos FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yaracuyanos FC 1.37 xG vs Aragua FC 1.23 \u2192 Yaracuyanos FC 38.5%",
"Market: Yaracuyanos FC ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Yaracuyanos FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.49,
"hero_label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Yaracuyanos FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Yaracuyanos FC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Yaracuyanos FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Yaracuyanos FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.49,
"edge_pp": -10.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.34,
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.15,
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Aragua FC",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Yaracuyanos FC (49.0%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.6%, 5/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Yaracuyanos FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.40 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 4.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.27",
"3.14"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 58m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.14,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,10.4 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.14"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "aragua-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aragua FC",
"away_team_id": 2817,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2817.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aragua FC",
"away_team_public_id": "4ZJvJYIfdSmS03",
"away_team_slug": "aragua-fc",
"country_code": "VE",
"country_display_name": "Venezuela",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
"country_id": 165,
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"fixture_id": 1560834,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Venezuela",
"home_team_display_name": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"home_team_id": 2829,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2829.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"home_team_public_id": "3rY0xlZcejBD3F",
"home_team_slug": "yaracuyanos-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "yaracuyanos-fc",
"league_country": "Venezuela",
"league_country_display": "Venezuela",
"league_display_name": "Copa Venezuela",
"league_id": 1113,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1113.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Venezuela",
"league_public_id": "5vbb6ztou6MMjn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 20:00:00",
"public_id": "2Ouz6nhveNz2VN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2588,
"best_odd": 3.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2279,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.4898
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2939,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2279,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.4898
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2863
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5054,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.2097,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2279,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.4898
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4366
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.89,
"edge": 0.0624,
"ev": 0.2429,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.1679,
"ev": -0.3038,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2217,
"alpha_yes": 0.2016,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.069,
"edge_yes": 0.069,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1177,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0643,
"implied_no": 0.525,
"implied_yes": 0.475,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.5254,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.51
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.4746,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4886
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.51,
"p_final_yes": 0.4886,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2173,
"alpha_under": 0.239,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.0541,
"edge_under": -0.0541,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.058,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1034,
"implied_over": 0.4279,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4286,
"implied_under": 0.5721,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5714,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4402
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.239,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4402,
"p_final_under": 0.5587,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2429,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.088,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2429,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yaracuyanos FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yaracuyanos FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yaracuyanos FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yaracuyanos FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1560834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yaracuyanos FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2097,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.2097,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Yaracuyanos FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.915,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.4746,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.5254,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.51
},
"p_final": 0.4886,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0643,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.4746,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4886
}
},
"edge": 0.069,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4402
},
"p_final": 0.4402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.058,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.239,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5587
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0541,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4279,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1560834,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.088,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aragua FC",
"home": "Yaracuyanos FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047872,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2097,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3039,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1560834,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T19:59:28.597173+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Yaracuyanos FC & Aragua FC!
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Langgan Sekarang
Copa Venezuela — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoátegui | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoátegui | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 3 | Atletico Avila FC | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
