The model missed the final outcome (Tranmere win 2–0).
The model had projected Blackpool at 35.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Blackpool Tranmere ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 35.9% | 34.5% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.2% | 22.6% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Blackpool | 35.9% | 43.0% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Blackpool's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.9%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Tranmere win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Blackpool. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Blackpool; match finished Tranmere
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Blackpool by 7.0 percentage points (42.9% vs model 35.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 20:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tranmere 35.8% · Draw 28.2% · Blackpool 36.0%
- xG · Tranmere 1.32 — Blackpool 1.28
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tranmere 2.62 · Draw 4.00 · Blackpool 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Tranmere 34.5% · Draw 22.6% · Blackpool 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Tranmere 2.62 · Draw 4.00 · Blackpool 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Tranmere 34.5% · Draw 22.6% · Blackpool 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tranmere win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
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