AI correctly predicted the Gyori ETO FC win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Gyori ETO FC Gyori ETO FC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyori ETO FC | 45.8% | 45.8% | +0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.3% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Budapest Honvéd | 25.4% | 28.9% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Gyori ETO FC win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Gyori ETO FC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Gyori ETO FC win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gyori ETO FC 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Budapest Honvéd 25.4%
- xG · Gyori ETO FC 1.52 — Budapest Honvéd 1.08
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO FC 2.08 · Draw 3.77 · Budapest Honvéd 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO FC 45.8% · Draw 25.3% · Budapest Honvéd 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO FC 2.08 · Draw 3.77 · Budapest Honvéd 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO FC 45.8% · Draw 25.3% · Budapest Honvéd 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gyori ETO FC win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
82/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Gyori ETO FC win · Gyori ETO FC 3–2 Budapest Honvéd
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0471,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.7,
"text": "-4.7%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0097,
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"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.7%",
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"side_label": "Gyori ETO FC",
"sort_key": 1797.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"alert_team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.58,
"hero_label": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"market_prob_pct": 45.8,
"market_team": "Gyori ETO FC",
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"model_team": "Gyori ETO FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyori ETO FC at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gyori ETO FC as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gyori ETO FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9090909090909091,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.58,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.58,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.52,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.52 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"steam_team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyori ETO FC at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gyori ETO FC as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gyori ETO FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gyori ETO FC 1.52 xG vs Budapest Honv\u00e9d 1.08 \u2192 Gyori ETO FC 45.8%",
"Market: Gyori ETO FC ~45.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Budapest Honv\u00e9d \u2193 -30.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gyori ETO FC, but sharp money moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.03,
"fair_prob": 45.82,
"label": "Gyori ETO FC",
"market_prob": 45.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.58,
"fair_prob": 25.37,
"label": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"market_prob": 28.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.99,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.99,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"market_prob_pct": 28.95,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.58,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Gyori ETO FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gyori ETO FC 1.52 xG vs Budapest Honv\u00e9d 1.08 \u2192 Gyori ETO FC 45.8%",
"Market: Gyori ETO FC ~45.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Budapest Honv\u00e9d \u2193 -30.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gyori ETO FC, but sharp money moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.58,
"hero_label": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d odds shortened \u2193 -30.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Budapest Honv\u00e9d.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Budapest Honv\u00e9d."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Budapest Honv\u00e9d (\u2193 -30.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/11) supports the current market view on Budapest Honv\u00e9d."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.58,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.03,
"edge_pp": 0.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gyori ETO FC",
"market_prob_pct": 45.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.55,
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.58,
"edge_pp": -3.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"market_prob_pct": 28.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Budapest Honv\u00e9d.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gyori ETO FC (45.8%).",
"However, Budapest Honv\u00e9d has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -30.7%, 10/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gyori ETO FC, Market \u2192 Gyori ETO FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Budapest Honv\u00e9d.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.4,
"closing_odds": 3.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.4,
"entry_odds": 3.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -31.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -31.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/11 books synchronized on Budapest Honv\u00e9d (30.7% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.67",
"3.00"
],
"display": "5.20 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 48m",
"pick_team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
3.29,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Budapest Honv\u00e9d \u2193 -30.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Budapest Honv\u00e9d \u2193 -30.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"away_team_id": 576,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/576.webp",
"away_team_name": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"away_team_public_id": "3w3MZPYsVhJtVp",
"away_team_slug": "budapest-honved",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1560238,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Gyori ETO FC",
"home_team_id": 2402,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2402.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gyori ETO FC",
"home_team_public_id": "2YmaXH9Do2G6wi",
"home_team_slug": "gyori-eto-fc",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "NB I",
"league_id": 271,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/271.webp",
"league_name": "NB I",
"league_public_id": "4nrQdbq97ohWkZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:00:00",
"public_id": "38luApg6MpzRPt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "ETO Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2839,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0811,
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2895,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4579
},
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.2793
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2895,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4579
},
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.2627
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4497,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2895,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4579
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.4581
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.2536
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0224,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.4584
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1659,
"alpha_yes": 0.2281,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0799,
"edge_yes": -0.0799,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.17,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0478,
"ev_yes": -0.1648,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1078,
"implied_no": 0.3881,
"implied_yes": 0.6119,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1659,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.4001
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.5948
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4001,
"p_final_yes": 0.5948,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2153,
"alpha_under": 0.1566,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.32,
"edge_over": -0.117,
"edge_under": 0.117,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0221,
"implied_over": 0.599,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5964,
"implied_under": 0.401,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4036,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2153,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5964,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5718
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.4036,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4215
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5718,
"p_final_under": 0.4215,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyori ETO FC at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gyori ETO FC as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gyori ETO FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Budapest Honv\u00e9d, but the model still strongly favours Gyori ETO FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gyori ETO FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1659,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0135,
"market_prob": 0.3866,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1659,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.4001
},
"p_final": 0.4001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0478,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.5948
}
},
"edge": 0.0799,
"ev": 0.17,
"implied_prob": 0.3881,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0179,
"market_prob": 0.4036,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2153,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5964,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5718
},
"p_final": 0.4215,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0221,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.4036,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4215
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.117,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1560238,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2536,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.4584
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.17,
"implied_prob": 0.3881,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.17,
"implied_prob": 0.3881,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Budapest Honv\u00e9d",
"home": "Gyori ETO FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0471,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0465,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1560238,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T17:59:50.655295+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
NB I — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskas Akademia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Újpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyíregyháza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Újpest | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Paks | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Puskas Akademia | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyíregyháza | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
