AI correctly predicted the Beerschot Wilrijk win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Beerschot Wilrijk Beerschot Wilrijk ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beerschot Wilrijk | 56.1% | 62.8% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 23.2% | 20.8% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Lierse Kempenzonen | 20.8% | 16.4% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Beerschot Wilrijk's win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 56.1%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Beerschot Wilrijk win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Beerschot Wilrijk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.35) — 4 goals materialised
- Beerschot Wilrijk attacking xG significantly stronger (2.07 vs 1.28)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Beerschot Wilrijk higher (62.8% vs model 56.1%, 6.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Beerschot Wilrijk win 3–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Beerschot Wilrijk 56.1% · Draw 23.2% · Lierse Kempenzonen 20.7%
- xG · Beerschot Wilrijk 2.07 — Lierse Kempenzonen 1.28
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Beerschot Wilrijk 1.51 · Draw 4.56 · Lierse Kempenzonen 5.77
- Implied 1X2 · Beerschot Wilrijk 62.8% · Draw 20.8% · Lierse Kempenzonen 16.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Beerschot Wilrijk 1.51 · Draw 4.56 · Lierse Kempenzonen 5.77
- Implied 1X2 · Beerschot Wilrijk 62.8% · Draw 20.8% · Lierse Kempenzonen 16.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Beerschot Wilrijk win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
70/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
66/100
Betting Confidence
73/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Beerschot Wilrijk win · Beerschot Wilrijk 3–1 Lierse Kempenzonen
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8865c78781b2d9960d0b6215d1539dbf8540b2477c7496db2773ebafa8f2caaa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2075,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2318,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5607,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.2075,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2075,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.357,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.643,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2318,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2318,
"fair_odds_away": 4.82,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.82,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.31,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.31,
"fair_odds_home": 1.78,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.78,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.07,
"home_win_prob": 0.5607,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5607,
"over_25_prob": 0.651,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.35
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Beerschot Wilrijk and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0667,
"edge_gap": 0.3294,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6278,
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 20.7,
"draw": 23.2,
"home": 56.1
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.51
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.51,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Beerschot Wilrijk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.59,
"market_odds": 1.51,
"model_odds": 1.78,
"overround": 5.5,
"prob_edge": -10.0,
"value_pct": -15.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 87.4,
"no_prob": 35.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 64.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 2.07,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Beerschot Wilrijk or Draw",
"prob": 79.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Beerschot Wilrijk or Lierse Kempenzonen",
"prob": 76.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lierse Kempenzonen",
"prob": 44.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk or Draw",
"pick_prob": 79.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 20.8,
"draw_pct": 23.2,
"home_pct": 56.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.35,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 65.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.35,
"under_prob": 34.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.0,
"implied_prob": 17.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lierse Kempenzonen Win",
"model_prob": 20.8,
"odds": 5.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.43,
"draw": 20.79,
"home": 62.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:01:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:32:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.78,
"gap_pp": -6.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 56.11
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.79,
"gap_pp": 2.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.17
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.43,
"gap_pp": 4.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 20.72
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.16,
"gap_pp": 6.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 65.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.84,
"gap_pp": -6.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 34.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.56,
"early": 4.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.79,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.77,
"early": 5.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.43,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.16,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.84,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.2,
"ev": -0.184,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.096,
"model_prob_pct": 9.6,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.07,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3364,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0376,
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"market_prob": 0.5312,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3059,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.1481,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"p_final": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1124,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.016,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3364,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": -0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5688
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2503,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.0,
"text": "-25.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1574,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1574,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 35.7,
"sort_key": 10291.66,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0267,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.5756,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.5756,
"model_prob": 0.65,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0497,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0273,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3259,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.4244,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0725,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1973,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.7,
"text": "-19.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0725,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 65.0,
"sort_key": 10065.25,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 34.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0057,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1527,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"sort_key": 1798.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.71,
"hero_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"market_team": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"model_prob_pct": 56.1,
"model_team": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1574,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beerschot Wilrijk at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beerschot Wilrijk as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Beerschot Wilrijk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1559155 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1527,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.79"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.71,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.07,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.07,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +53%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +0.7%",
"steam_team": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1574,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beerschot Wilrijk at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beerschot Wilrijk as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Beerschot Wilrijk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1559155 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1527,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.79"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Beerschot Wilrijk 2.07 xG vs Lierse Kempenzonen 1.28 \u2192 Beerschot Wilrijk 56.1%",
"Market: Beerschot Wilrijk ~62.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Beerschot Wilrijk odds \u2191 +0.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Beerschot Wilrijk, but the market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.71,
"fair_prob": 56.07,
"label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"market_prob": 62.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob": 23.18,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob": 20.75,
"label": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"market_prob": 16.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.35,
"fair_prob": 65.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob": 34.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.06,
"fair_prob": 64.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.06,
"fair_prob": 35.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.07,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"market_prob_pct": 62.78,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Beerschot Wilrijk\u0027s win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 56.1%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 56.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Beerschot Wilrijk 2.07 xG vs Lierse Kempenzonen 1.28 \u2192 Beerschot Wilrijk 56.1%",
"Market: Beerschot Wilrijk ~62.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Beerschot Wilrijk odds \u2191 +0.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Beerschot Wilrijk, but the market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.71,
"hero_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Beerschot Wilrijk odds lengthened \u2191 +0.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Beerschot Wilrijk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Beerschot Wilrijk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Beerschot Wilrijk above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Beerschot Wilrijk (\u2191 +0.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 32.9 pp (at 56.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 32.9,
"max_prob_pct": 56.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Beerschot Wilrijk higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.71,
"edge_pp": -6.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.07,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"market_prob_pct": 62.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.39,
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.18,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.32,
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"market_prob_pct": 16.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Beerschot Wilrijk (62.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Beerschot Wilrijk, Market \u2192 Beerschot Wilrijk, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"current_odds": 1.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +0.7%",
"open_odds": 1.44,
"pick_team": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lierse-kempenzonen",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"away_team_id": 6219,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6219.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"away_team_public_id": "3vRlMvyWgR6dwB",
"away_team_slug": "lierse-kempenzonen",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1559155,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"home_team_id": 263,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/263.webp",
"home_team_name": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"home_team_public_id": "21xn6bL3kQXeBt",
"home_team_slug": "beerschot-wilrijk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "beerschot-wilrijk",
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Challenger Pro League Belgium",
"league_id": 145,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/145.webp",
"league_name": "Challenger Pro League Belgium",
"league_public_id": "1tqt9cB6hN3m2T",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3KcnD2FAh6JTB0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Antwerp",
"venue_name": "Olympisch Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1871,
"best_odd": 5.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0057,
"implied_prob": 0.1643,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1643,
"draw": 0.2079,
"home": 0.6278
},
"model_prob": 0.2072,
"p_final": 0.1723
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 4.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.2079,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1643,
"draw": 0.2079,
"home": 0.6278
},
"model_prob": 0.2317,
"p_final": 0.2125
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5399,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1643,
"draw": 0.2079,
"home": 0.6278
},
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"p_final": 0.5918
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.77,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.1956,
"implied_prob": 0.1733,
"model_prob": 0.2072
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.56,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": 0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.2193,
"model_prob": 0.2317
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.1012,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.5611
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3059,
"alpha_yes": 0.3364,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1106,
"edge_yes": 0.1106,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2503,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1481,
"ev_yes": 0.1574,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.016,
"implied_no": 0.4676,
"implied_yes": 0.5324,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3059,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.1481,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3364,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": -0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5688
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4346,
"p_final_yes": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3591,
"alpha_under": 0.3259,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.615,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": 0.0735,
"edge_under": -0.0745,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0725,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0273,
"ev_under": -0.1973,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1243,
"implied_over": 0.5765,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5756,
"implied_under": 0.4235,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4244,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.5756,
"model_prob": 0.65,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3259,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.4244,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6023,
"p_final_under": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.35,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1574,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1956,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1574,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1574,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 29,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beerschot Wilrijk at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beerschot Wilrijk as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beerschot Wilrijk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Beerschot Wilrijk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1559155 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "29 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Beerschot Wilrijk, but the model still strongly favours Beerschot Wilrijk.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1527,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.79"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.643,
"draw_prob": 0.2317,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5611,
"over_prob": 0.65,
"total_xg": 3.35,
"under_prob": 0.349,
"xg_diff": 0.79
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Beerschot Wilrijk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3364,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0376,
"market_prob": 0.5312,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3059,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.1481,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"p_final": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.016,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3364,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": -0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.5688
}
},
"edge": 0.1106,
"ev": 0.1574,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0267,
"market_prob": 0.5756,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.5756,
"model_prob": 0.65,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0273,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3259,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.4244,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0735,
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"model_prob": 0.65,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1559155,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1574,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2072,
"draw": 0.2317,
"home": 0.5611
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.5765,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lierse Kempenzonen",
"home": "Beerschot Wilrijk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.101208,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1574,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.643,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5611,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1527,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1559155,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:25:21.854880+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Beerschot Wilrijk & Lierse Kempenzonen!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Challenger Pro League Belgium — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot Wilrijk | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Dender | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Francs Borains | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Excelsior Virton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sporting Hasselt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Club Brugge II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | KRC Genk II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Liège | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | KAA Gent II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Lierse Kempenzonen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Patro Eisden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Seraing United | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot Wilrijk | 6 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | KRC Genk II | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | AS Eupen | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 5 | Club Brugge II | 5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Liège | 6 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Francs Borains | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 | Dender | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Excelsior Virton | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 10 | Patro Eisden | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | RSC Anderlecht II | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 1 |
| 12 | KAA Gent II | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Seraing United | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 |
| 14 | Sporting Hasselt | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Lierse Kempenzonen | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior Virton | 5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 10 |
| 2 | AS Eupen | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 12 |
| 3 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 10 |
| 4 | RSC Anderlecht II | 6 | 0.7 | 2.0 | -1.3 | 1 |
| 5 | Beerschot Wilrijk | 6 | — | — | — | 15 |
| 6 | Dender | 6 | — | — | — | 15 |
| 7 | Francs Borains | 5 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Hasselt | 6 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 10 | KRC Genk II | 6 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 11 | Liège | 6 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 12 | KAA Gent II | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 13 | Lierse Kempenzonen | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 14 | Patro Eisden | 6 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 15 | Seraing United | 6 | — | — | — | 2 |
