The model missed the final outcome (Warta Poznań win 3–0).
The model had projected Arka Gdynia at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Arka Gdynia Warta Poznań ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Poznań | 24.5% | 36.6% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 25.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Arka Gdynia | 46.8% | 38.1% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Warta Poznań's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 24.5%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Warta Poznań win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Poznań than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Arka Gdynia; match finished Warta Poznań
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arka Gdynia by 12.1 percentage points (58.9% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Warta Poznań 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Arka Gdynia 46.8%
- xG · Warta Poznań 1.06 — Arka Gdynia 1.54
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Warta Poznań 2.60 · Draw 3.76 · Arka Gdynia 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Warta Poznań 36.6% · Draw 25.3% · Arka Gdynia 38.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Warta Poznań 2.60 · Draw 3.76 · Arka Gdynia 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Warta Poznań 36.6% · Draw 25.3% · Arka Gdynia 38.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Warta Poznań win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
39/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Warta Poznań win · Warta Poznań 3–0 Arka Gdynia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0368,
"ev_available": true,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": 0.0368,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1688,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Arka Gdynia",
"sort_key": 10033.12,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.07,
"hero_label": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"market_team": "Arka Gdynia",
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_team": "Arka Gdynia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1688,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arka Gdynia at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arka Gdynia as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arka Gdynia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arka Gdynia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.48 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558220 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.48 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1688,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.54,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.06,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.06 \u00b7 Away xG 1.54 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1688,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arka Gdynia at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arka Gdynia as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arka Gdynia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arka Gdynia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.48 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558220 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.48 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1688,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Warta Pozna\u0144 1.06 xG vs Arka Gdynia 1.54 \u2192 Arka Gdynia 46.8%",
"Market: Arka Gdynia ~38.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Warta Pozna\u0144 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Arka Gdynia projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob": 24.54,
"label": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob": 36.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.74,
"fair_prob": 46.81,
"label": "Arka Gdynia",
"market_prob": 38.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.09,
"fair_prob": 52.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.09,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob_pct": 36.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Warta Pozna\u0144"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Warta Pozna\u0144\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 24.5%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Arka Gdynia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.7,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Arka Gdynia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Warta Pozna\u0144 1.06 xG vs Arka Gdynia 1.54 \u2192 Arka Gdynia 46.8%",
"Market: Arka Gdynia ~38.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Warta Pozna\u0144 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Arka Gdynia projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.07,
"hero_label": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Pozna\u0144 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Pozna\u0144 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Pozna\u0144 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Warta Pozna\u0144 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Warta Pozna\u0144 (pricing gap 12.1 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.2 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.2,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Warta Pozna\u0144 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.07,
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob_pct": 36.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.33,
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.32,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.74,
"edge_pp": 8.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arka Gdynia",
"market_prob_pct": 38.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Pozna\u0144 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arka Gdynia (38.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arka Gdynia, Market \u2192 Arka Gdynia, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "arka-gdynia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Arka Gdynia",
"away_team_id": 344,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/344.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arka Gdynia",
"away_team_public_id": "1YDr6isIthyORa",
"away_team_slug": "arka-gdynia",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1558220,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"home_team_id": 3496,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3496.webp",
"home_team_name": "Warta Pozna\u0144",
"home_team_public_id": "4qvEvapjK04zix",
"home_team_slug": "warta-poznan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "warta-poznan",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "I liga",
"league_id": 107,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/107.webp",
"league_name": "I liga",
"league_public_id": "4a8f20QylrG2xa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2avqgOZ5o749qb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3914,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.034,
"ev": 0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3807,
"draw": 0.2532,
"home": 0.3661
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2849,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3807,
"draw": 0.2532,
"home": 0.3661
},
"model_prob": 0.2867,
"p_final": 0.2627
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3688,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0444,
"ev": -0.1635,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3807,
"draw": 0.2532,
"home": 0.3661
},
"model_prob": 0.2458,
"p_final": 0.3217
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0675,
"ev": 0.1688,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.4675
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": 0.0779,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.1388,
"ev": -0.3609,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.2458
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1753,
"alpha_yes": 0.241,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0509,
"edge_yes": -0.0509,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0833,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0517,
"ev_yes": -0.143,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0891,
"implied_no": 0.4201,
"implied_yes": 0.5799,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4311
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.241,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5658
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4311,
"p_final_yes": 0.5658,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2401,
"alpha_under": 0.2183,
"best_over_odd": 1.83,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.755,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.0511,
"edge_under": 0.0511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1179,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0866,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0431,
"implied_over": 0.5331,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5326,
"implied_under": 0.4669,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4674,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2401,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5205
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4784
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5205,
"p_final_under": 0.4784,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1688,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0833,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1688,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arka Gdynia at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arka Gdynia as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arka Gdynia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arka Gdynia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.48 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558220 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.48 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Arka Gdynia).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1688,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"draw_prob": 0.2867,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4675,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.034,
"ev": 0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arka Gdynia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4226,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1753,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4311
},
"p_final": 0.4311,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.241,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5658
}
},
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.4201,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2401,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5205
},
"p_final": 0.4784,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4784
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1558220,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0833,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4675,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.2458
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arka Gdynia",
"home": "Warta Pozna\u0144"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039234,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.4201,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0368,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1688,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1558220,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:29:20.018625+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
I liga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Lechia Gdańsk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 9 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 2 | Lechia Gdańsk | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 3 | Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 9 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Nieciecza | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Podbeskidzie | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 16 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Odra Opole | 9 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
