AI correctly predicted the Koper win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Koper Koper ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 26.2% | 15.3% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.9% | 21.5% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Koper | 44.8% | 63.2% | -18.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Koper's win probability at 63.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 18.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Koper win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Koper than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Koper attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Koper higher (63.2% vs model 44.8%, 18.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Koper win 0–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nafta 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Koper 44.8%
- xG · Nafta 1.10 — Koper 1.50
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Jul 17, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nafta 6.20 · Draw 4.41 · Koper 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Nafta 15.3% · Draw 21.5% · Koper 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nafta 6.20 · Draw 4.41 · Koper 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Nafta 15.3% · Draw 21.5% · Koper 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Koper win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
1. SNL Slovenia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Koper | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Bravo | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Aluminij | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Nafta | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Celje | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Mura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Nafta | 10 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | Aluminij | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 |
| 5 | Koper | 10 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Celje | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Bravo | 9 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Mura | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 9 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 9 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
