The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Beitar Jerusalem at 39.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Beitar Jerusalem Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beitar Jerusalem | 39.4% | 45.0% | -5.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.0% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 31.8% | 30.0% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Beitar Jerusalem's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.4%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Beitar Jerusalem. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Beitar Jerusalem; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Beitar Jerusalem by 5.6 percentage points (45.0% vs model 39.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
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Jul 18, 2026 · 20:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Beitar Jerusalem 39.4% · Draw 28.8% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 31.8%
- xG · Beitar Jerusalem 1.36 — Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.24
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Jul 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Beitar Jerusalem 2.00 · Draw 3.60 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Beitar Jerusalem 45.0% · Draw 25.0% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
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Jul 18, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Beitar Jerusalem 2.00 · Draw 3.60 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Beitar Jerusalem 45.0% · Draw 25.0% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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