The model missed the final outcome (Stranraer win 0–3).
The model had projected Forfar Athletic at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Forfar Athletic Stranraer ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic | 39.0% | 33.3% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.9% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Stranraer | 31.5% | 38.8% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stranraer's win probability at 38.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Stranraer win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stranraer. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Forfar Athletic by 7.3 percentage points (46.4% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Stranraer 31.5%
- xG · Forfar Athletic 1.38 — Stranraer 1.22
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Forfar Athletic 2.75 · Draw 3.29 · Stranraer 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 33.3% · Draw 27.9% · Stranraer 38.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Forfar Athletic 2.75 · Draw 3.29 · Stranraer 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 33.3% · Draw 27.9% · Stranraer 38.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stranraer win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Forfar Athletic & Stranraer!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Dua Scotland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Stranraer | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Spartans | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Elgin City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Annan Athletic | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartans | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Clyde | 7 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 7 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 11 |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Stirling Albion | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 7 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
