The model missed the final outcome (Alianza Lima W win 0–3).
The model had projected Killas W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Killas W Alianza Lima W ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killas W | 36.1% | 4.8% | +31.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 11.3% | +18.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Alianza Lima W | 34.2% | 83.9% | -49.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Alianza Lima W's win probability at 83.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 49.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Alianza Lima W win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Killas W by 49.7 percentage points (85.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 22:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Killas W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Alianza Lima W 34.2%
- xG · Killas W 1.32 — Alianza Lima W 1.28
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 19.00 · Draw 8.00 · Alianza Lima W 1.08
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 4.8% · Draw 11.3% · Alianza Lima W 83.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 19.00 · Draw 8.00 · Alianza Lima W 1.08
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 4.8% · Draw 11.3% · Alianza Lima W 83.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Alianza Lima W win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (50 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Killas W & Alianza Lima W!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Wanita Peru — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario de Deportes W | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Atlético Andahuaylas W | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Defensores W | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Killas W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario de Deportes W | 10 | 55 | 4 | +51 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 21 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 16 |
| 7 | Atlético Andahuaylas W | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 25 |
| 8 | Killas W | 10 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 5 |
| 9 | Defensores W | 10 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 7 |
| 10 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 4 |
