The model missed the final outcome (East Kilbride win 1–2).
The model had projected Alloa Athletic at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Alloa Athletic East Kilbride ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa Athletic | 36.6% | 36.6% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| East Kilbride | 33.8% | 35.8% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah East Kilbride win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was East Kilbride win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alloa Athletic 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · East Kilbride 33.8%
- xG · Alloa Athletic 1.33 — East Kilbride 1.27
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alloa Athletic 2.50 · Draw 3.32 · East Kilbride 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Alloa Athletic 36.6% · Draw 27.6% · East Kilbride 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Alloa Athletic 2.50 · Draw 3.32 · East Kilbride 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Alloa Athletic 36.6% · Draw 27.6% · East Kilbride 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result East Kilbride win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
89/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
East Kilbride win · Alloa Athletic 1–2 East Kilbride
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0845,
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"raw_pct": -8.5,
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0642,
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"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Alloa Athletic",
"sort_key": 1783.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.05,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"market_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alloa Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alloa Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alloa Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.05,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"steam_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alloa Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alloa Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alloa Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alloa Athletic 1.33 xG vs East Kilbride 1.27 \u2192 Alloa Athletic 36.6%",
"Market: Alloa Athletic ~36.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Alloa Athletic odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alloa Athletic, but the market has moved away from Alloa Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob": 36.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.01,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "East Kilbride",
"market_prob": 35.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.56,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Alloa Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alloa Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alloa Athletic 1.33 xG vs East Kilbride 1.27 \u2192 Alloa Athletic 36.6%",
"Market: Alloa Athletic ~36.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Alloa Athletic odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alloa Athletic, but the market has moved away from Alloa Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.05,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Alloa Athletic odds lengthened \u2191 +0.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Alloa Athletic has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Alloa Athletic has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Alloa Athletic has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.05,
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 36.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.05,
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.01,
"edge_pp": -2.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "East Kilbride",
"market_prob_pct": 35.78,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alloa Athletic (36.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Alloa Athletic, Market \u2192 Alloa Athletic, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"closing_odds": 3.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.12,
"entry_odds": 3.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "east-kilbride",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "East Kilbride",
"away_team_id": 6765,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6765.webp",
"away_team_name": "East Kilbride",
"away_team_public_id": "31FOZAXPlC7evx",
"away_team_slug": "east-kilbride",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1557041,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"home_team_id": 1391,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1391.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"home_team_public_id": "1Z4mzpvSy7if0P",
"home_team_slug": "alloa-athletic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alloa-athletic",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Satu Scotland",
"league_id": 183,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/183.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Satu Scotland",
"league_public_id": "1Nzh5V5208Ee9I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "06rOfeFATWPHoS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Alloa",
"venue_name": "Recreation Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4363,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3578,
"draw": 0.2759,
"home": 0.3664
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3489
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.2759,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3578,
"draw": 0.2759,
"home": 0.3664
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2819
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4497,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3578,
"draw": 0.2759,
"home": 0.3664
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3662
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.1359,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0157,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.085,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1645,
"alpha_yes": 0.2262,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0556,
"edge_yes": -0.0556,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0596,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1012,
"implied_no": 0.3994,
"implied_yes": 0.6006,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.6023,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5894
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4071,
"p_final_yes": 0.5894,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2185,
"alpha_under": 0.1987,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0773,
"edge_under": 0.0773,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1041,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"implied_over": 0.5593,
"implied_over_mf": 0.56,
"implied_under": 0.4407,
"implied_under_mf": 0.44,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.543
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4555
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.543,
"p_final_under": 0.4555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alloa Athletic at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alloa Athletic as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alloa Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alloa Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Alloa Athletic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alloa Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.3977,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"p_final": 0.4071,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0596,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.6023,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5894
}
},
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.3994,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.44,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.543
},
"p_final": 0.4555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0773,
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1557041,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "East Kilbride",
"home": "Alloa Athletic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044999,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+-0.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1557041,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:58:27.701382+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Satu Scotland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Montrose | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Airdrie United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | East Fife | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Cove Rangers | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Queen of the South | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 7 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 7 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 8 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Montrose | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | East Fife | 8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 8 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 4 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
