AI correctly predicted the Arbroath win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Arbroath Arbroath ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 38.0% | 51.4% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.2% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Queen's Park | 32.4% | 20.4% | +11.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Arbroath's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Arbroath win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Arbroath than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Arbroath higher (51.4% vs model 38.0%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Arbroath win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arbroath 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Queen's Park 32.4%
- xG · Arbroath 1.36 — Queen's Park 1.24
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arbroath 1.85 · Draw 3.39 · Queen's Park 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · Arbroath 51.4% · Draw 28.1% · Queen's Park 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Arbroath 1.85 · Draw 3.37 · Queen's Park 4.65
- Implied 1X2 · Arbroath 51.4% · Draw 28.2% · Queen's Park 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Arbroath win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
33/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Arbroath win · Arbroath 2–1 Queen's Park
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1681,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
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"max_ev": 0.0414,
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"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2964,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%",
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"side_label": "Arbroath",
"sort_key": 5233.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"alert_team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.36,
"hero_label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 51.4,
"market_team": "Arbroath",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Arbroath",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1696,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arbroath at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arbroath as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arbroath",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arbroath \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556861 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2964,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.36,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"steam_team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1696,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arbroath at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arbroath as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arbroath",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arbroath \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556861 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2964,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arbroath 1.36 xG vs Queen\u0027s Park 1.24 \u2192 Arbroath 38.0%",
"Market: Arbroath ~51.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Queen\u0027s Park \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arbroath, but sharp money moved toward Queen\u0027s Park.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.36,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob": 51.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.39,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.95,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"market_prob": 20.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.34,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.34,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 51.37,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Queen\u0027s Park"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Arbroath\u0027s win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Arbroath",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arbroath 1.36 xG vs Queen\u0027s Park 1.24 \u2192 Arbroath 38.0%",
"Market: Arbroath ~51.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Queen\u0027s Park \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arbroath, but sharp money moved toward Queen\u0027s Park.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.36,
"hero_label": "Arbroath",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Queen\u0027s Park odds shortened \u2193 -13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Queen\u0027s Park, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Arbroath than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Queen\u0027s Park \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Arbroath than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Queen\u0027s Park, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Buying interest on Queen\u0027s Park \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Arbroath more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Queen\u0027s Park has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Queen\u0027s Park."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arbroath",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Arbroath higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.36,
"edge_pp": -13.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 51.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.39,
"edge_pp": 1.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.95,
"edge_pp": 11.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"market_prob_pct": 20.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Queen\u0027s Park \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arbroath (51.4%).",
"However, Queen\u0027s Park has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.3%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arbroath, Market \u2192 Arbroath, Recent sharp money \u2192 Queen\u0027s Park.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Queen\u0027s Park (13.3%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.65",
"4.28",
"3.90"
],
"display": "5.01 \u2192 3.76 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 49m",
"pick_team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.65,
4.63,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.6 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Queen\u0027s Park \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Queen\u0027s Park \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Queen\u0027s Park while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "queen-s-park",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"away_team_id": 6778,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6778.webp",
"away_team_name": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"away_team_public_id": "3H4IEisAC5yP0E",
"away_team_slug": "queen-s-park",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556861,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Arbroath",
"home_team_id": 4249,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4249.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arbroath",
"home_team_public_id": "1SuLD95tpIkjHs",
"home_team_slug": "arbroath",
"ht.home_team_slug": "arbroath",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Kejuaraan Scotland",
"league_id": 180,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/180.webp",
"league_name": "Kejuaraan Scotland",
"league_public_id": "5dmWZ2IMBJTcR8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3aHKbF7bVoHI5t",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Arbroath",
"venue_name": "Gayfield Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 4.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": 0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.282,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.224
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2937,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.282,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.282,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2861
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.48,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.064,
"ev": -0.1681,
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2044,
"draw": 0.282,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4497
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.65,
"edge": 0.1087,
"ev": 0.5053,
"implied_prob": 0.2151,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0027,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.1602,
"ev": -0.2964,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2134,
"alpha_yes": 0.194,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0934,
"edge_yes": 0.0934,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2248,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1126,
"ev_yes": 0.1696,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"implied_no": 0.5494,
"implied_yes": 0.4506,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5282
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5282,
"p_final_yes": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1627,
"alpha_under": 0.2237,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.066,
"edge_under": -0.066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0575,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1031,
"implied_over": 0.416,
"implied_over_mf": 0.418,
"implied_under": 0.584,
"implied_under_mf": 0.582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5677
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4284,
"p_final_under": 0.5677,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1696,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5053,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1696,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1696,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arbroath at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arbroath as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arbroath",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arbroath \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556861 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queen\u0027s Park, but the model still strongly favours Arbroath.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2964,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2044,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.064,
"ev": -0.1681,
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arbroath"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4522,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5282
},
"p_final": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4506,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"market_prob": 0.418,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0575,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5677
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.066,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556861,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1696,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Queen\u0027s Park",
"home": "Arbroath"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.092262,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4506,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1681,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2964,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556861,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T18:45:55.034073+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Kejuaraan Scotland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr United | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Livingston | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Ayr United | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Partick | 7 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
