AI correctly predicted the Stenhousemuir win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 36.6% | 46.2% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Arbroath | 33.8% | 22.6% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Arbroath's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.6%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Stenhousemuir win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arbroath.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stenhousemuir more conservatively (25.4% vs model 36.6%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stenhousemuir win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stenhousemuir 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Arbroath 33.8%
- xG · Stenhousemuir 1.33 — Arbroath 1.27
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stenhousemuir 1.98 · Draw 3.24 · Arbroath 4.19
- Implied 1X2 · Stenhousemuir 48.0% · Draw 29.3% · Arbroath 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Stenhousemuir 2.06 · Draw 3.05 · Arbroath 4.21
- Implied 1X2 · Stenhousemuir 46.2% · Draw 31.2% · Arbroath 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stenhousemuir win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
44/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.21
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Stenhousemuir win · Stenhousemuir 1–0 Arbroath
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1245,
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"ev_display": {
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},
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 5223.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"alert_team": "Arbroath",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.17,
"hero_label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Stenhousemuir",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4211,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stenhousemuir at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stenhousemuir as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stenhousemuir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Stenhousemuir \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1245,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.246,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"steam_team": "Arbroath",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4211,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stenhousemuir at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stenhousemuir as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stenhousemuir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Stenhousemuir \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1245,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.246,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stenhousemuir 1.33 xG vs Arbroath 1.27 \u2192 Stenhousemuir 36.6%",
"Market: Stenhousemuir ~46.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Arbroath odds \u2191 +34.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stenhousemuir with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Stenhousemuir",
"market_prob": 46.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.17,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob": 22.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Arbroath"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Arbroath\u0027s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.6%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stenhousemuir",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Stenhousemuir \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stenhousemuir 1.33 xG vs Arbroath 1.27 \u2192 Stenhousemuir 36.6%",
"Market: Stenhousemuir ~46.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Arbroath odds \u2191 +34.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stenhousemuir with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.17,
"hero_label": "Arbroath",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Arbroath odds lengthened \u2191 +34.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arbroath.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arbroath.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arbroath.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arbroath."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Arbroath more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Arbroath (\u2191 +34.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Arbroath."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arbroath",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.2,
"lead": "The model rates Arbroath considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.61,
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Stenhousemuir",
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.56,
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.17,
"edge_pp": 11.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arbroath",
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arbroath.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stenhousemuir (46.2%).",
"However, Arbroath has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +34.5%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Stenhousemuir \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.75,
"closing_odds": 4.21,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.75,
"entry_odds": 4.21,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 37.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 34.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Arbroath together (34.5% drift, score 76) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.21",
"3.48",
"2.75"
],
"display": "4.19 \u2192 2.74 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 17m",
"pick_team": "Arbroath",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.19"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
4.21,
4.19,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.2 56.0,6.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Arbroath odds \u2191 +34.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Arbroath",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Arbroath odds \u2191 +34.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Arbroath",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Arbroath",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "Arbroath",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "arbroath",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Arbroath",
"away_team_id": 4249,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4249.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arbroath",
"away_team_public_id": "1SuLD95tpIkjHs",
"away_team_slug": "arbroath",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556860,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Stenhousemuir",
"home_team_id": 6784,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6784.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stenhousemuir",
"home_team_public_id": "3mhztVl3kVPeRY",
"home_team_slug": "stenhousemuir",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stenhousemuir",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Kejuaraan Scotland",
"league_id": 180,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/180.webp",
"league_name": "Kejuaraan Scotland",
"league_public_id": "5dmWZ2IMBJTcR8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3YroNZFeIKVizE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Stenhousemuir",
"venue_name": "Ochilview Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1665,
"best_odd": 4.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": 0.0298,
"implied_prob": 0.226,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.226,
"draw": 0.312,
"home": 0.462
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2446
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.293,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.226,
"draw": 0.312,
"home": 0.462
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3075
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3852,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.226,
"draw": 0.312,
"home": 0.462
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.425
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.21,
"edge": 0.1,
"ev": 0.4211,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.1195,
"ev": -0.2461,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2163,
"alpha_yes": 0.1966,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0862,
"edge_yes": 0.0862,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1093,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0451,
"implied_no": 0.5412,
"implied_yes": 0.4588,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0451,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4774
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5209,
"p_final_yes": 0.4774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1621,
"alpha_under": 0.2229,
"best_over_odd": 2.36,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.235,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0686,
"edge_under": -0.0686,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1375,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0469,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0944,
"implied_over": 0.4134,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4157,
"implied_under": 0.5866,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5843,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0469,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2229,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5695
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4264,
"p_final_under": 0.5695,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4211,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4211,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stenhousemuir at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stenhousemuir as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stenhousemuir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Stenhousemuir \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stenhousemuir).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1245,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.246,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0298,
"implied_prob": 0.226,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arbroath",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Stenhousemuir"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0165,
"market_prob": 0.4609,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0451,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0451,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4774
}
},
"edge": 0.0862,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4588,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0469,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"p_final": 0.4264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0469,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2229,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5695
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556860,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1445,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4134,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arbroath",
"home": "Stenhousemuir"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4588,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1245,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.462,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.246,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556860,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:58:20.122331+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Kejuaraan Scotland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr United | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Livingston | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Ayr United | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Partick | 7 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
