The model missed the final outcome (Beşiktaş win 0–2).
The model had projected FC Midtjylland at 60.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 FC Midtjylland Beşiktaş ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 60.2% | 48.7% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 20.5% | 24.9% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Beşiktaş | 19.3% | 26.5% | -7.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates FC Midtjylland's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 48.7%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Beşiktaş win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FC Midtjylland.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Midtjylland by 11.6 percentage points (48.7% vs model 60.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Midtjylland 60.2% · Draw 20.5% · Beşiktaş 19.3%
- xG · FC Midtjylland 2.45 — Beşiktaş 1.37
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Midtjylland 1.93 · Draw 3.78 · Beşiktaş 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · FC Midtjylland 48.7% · Draw 24.9% · Beşiktaş 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Midtjylland 1.93 · Draw 3.78 · Beşiktaş 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · FC Midtjylland 48.7% · Draw 24.9% · Beşiktaş 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Beşiktaş win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
45/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (81%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
42/100
Betting Confidence
36/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Beşiktaş win · FC Midtjylland 0–2 Beşiktaş
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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"api_prediction": {
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{
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}
},
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"away_played": 1,
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"home_score_rate": 91.4,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 69.1,
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"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
"away": 0,
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"prob": 6.6
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{
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"prob": 6.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Midtjylland or Draw",
"prob": 80.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Midtjylland or Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"prob": 79.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"prob": 39.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "FC Midtjylland or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.7
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 60.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "FC Midtjylland"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 3.82,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.82,
"under_prob": 26.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.3,
"implied_prob": 51.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "FC Midtjylland Win",
"model_prob": 60.2,
"odds": 1.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.47,
"draw": 24.85,
"home": 48.68
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-30 16:59:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-30 16:29:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Midtjylland",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.68,
"gap_pp": 11.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 60.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.85,
"gap_pp": -4.36,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 20.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.47,
"gap_pp": -7.2,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.14,
"gap_pp": 14.26,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.86,
"gap_pp": -14.26,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 26.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
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{
"closing": 3.78,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.55,
"early": 3.55,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
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},
{
"closing": 2.33,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
}
},
"home_xg": 2.45,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 1.96,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home FC Midtjylland",
"edge": 9.2,
"ev": 18.1,
"probability": 60.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0502,
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"text": "+5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"sort_key": 10195.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 73.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 26.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 30.9,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"alert_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.55,
"hero_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"market_prob_pct": 48.7,
"market_team": "FC Midtjylland",
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"model_team": "FC Midtjylland",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1626,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Midtjylland at 60.2% vs market 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Midtjylland as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Midtjylland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Midtjylland \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556549 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 81.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (81%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 44,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 81.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.45,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.45,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +81%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"steam_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1626,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Midtjylland at 60.2% vs market 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Midtjylland as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Midtjylland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Midtjylland \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556549 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 81.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Midtjylland 2.45 xG vs Be\u015fikta\u015f 1.37 \u2192 FC Midtjylland 60.2%",
"Market: FC Midtjylland ~48.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2193 -16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FC Midtjylland, but sharp money moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 11.55,
"fair_prob": 60.23,
"label": "FC Midtjylland",
"market_prob": 48.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob": 20.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.2,
"fair_prob": 19.27,
"label": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"market_prob": 26.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.23,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FC Midtjylland",
"market_prob_pct": 48.68,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Be\u015fikta\u015f"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates FC Midtjylland\u0027s win probability at 60.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 48.7%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.5,
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 44,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Midtjylland 2.45 xG vs Be\u015fikta\u015f 1.37 \u2192 FC Midtjylland 60.2%",
"Market: FC Midtjylland ~48.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2193 -16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FC Midtjylland, but sharp money moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.55,
"hero_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Be\u015fikta\u015f odds shortened \u2193 -16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Be\u015fikta\u015f, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FC Midtjylland.",
"note": "Buying interest on Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FC Midtjylland.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Be\u015fikta\u015f, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
"Buying interest on Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors FC Midtjylland more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Be\u015fikta\u015f has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 39.7 pp (at 60.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 39.7,
"max_prob_pct": 60.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.6,
"lead": "The model rates FC Midtjylland considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 11.55,
"edge_pp": 11.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.23,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Midtjylland",
"market_prob_pct": 48.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.35,
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.2,
"edge_pp": -7.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.27,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"market_prob_pct": 26.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Midtjylland (48.7%).",
"However, Be\u015fikta\u015f has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.7%, 8/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FC Midtjylland, Market \u2192 FC Midtjylland, Recent sharp money \u2192 Be\u015fikta\u015f.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Be\u015fikta\u015f (16.7%, 8/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.85",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 3.11 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 14m",
"pick_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
3.55,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_team_name": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"away_team_id": 549,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/549.webp",
"away_team_name": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"away_team_slug": "besiktas",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1556549,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Midtjylland",
"home_team_id": 397,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/397.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Midtjylland",
"home_team_slug": "fc-midtjylland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Europa UEFA",
"league_id": 3,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/3.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Europa UEFA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-30 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Herning",
"venue_name": "MCH Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2676,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.2647,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2647,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4868
},
"model_prob": 0.1927,
"p_final": 0.2454
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2804,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.2485,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2647,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4868
},
"model_prob": 0.2049,
"p_final": 0.2363
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0573,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2647,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4868
},
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"p_final": 0.5441
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": -0.089,
"ev": -0.316,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.1927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.2254,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.2049
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0843,
"ev": 0.1626,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.6024
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.82,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1626,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0502,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1626,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Midtjylland at 60.2% vs market 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Midtjylland as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Midtjylland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Midtjylland \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556549 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Be\u015fikta\u015f, but the model still strongly favours FC Midtjylland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 81.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.691,
"draw_prob": 0.2049,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6024,
"over_prob": 0.734,
"total_xg": 3.82,
"under_prob": 0.266,
"xg_diff": 1.08
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0573,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FC Midtjylland"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.691,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.734,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556549,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0502,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1927,
"draw": 0.2049,
"home": 0.6024
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Be\u015fikta\u015f",
"home": "FC Midtjylland"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036289,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FC Midtjylland",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6024,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556549,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-30T16:59:29.310763+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Europa UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Rennes | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | +0.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 8 | AC Milan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 0 |
| 9 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 0 |
| 10 | Lyon | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 11 | Benfica | 1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 12 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 1 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 14 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 15 | Celje | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 0 |
| 18 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 19 | Juventus | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Beşiktaş | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | OFI | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | Bournemouth | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 26 | Torreense | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 27 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 28 | Real Sociedad | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 29 | Lillestrøm | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Celtic | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Marseille | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
