Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Dunia. Liga Persidangan Europa UEFA / Panathinaikos vs Paks

Audit Ramalan: Panathinaikos vs Paks Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Panathinaikos Panathinaikos
Jul 30, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Paks Paks

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Panathinaikos at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Panathinaikos Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Panathinaikos higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Panathinaikos -32.2 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Panathinaikos 39.0% 71.2% -32.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 17.5% +12.0 pp Model Edge
Paks 31.5% 11.3% +20.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Panathinaikos's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 32.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Panathinaikos; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Panathinaikos by 32.2 percentage points (71.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Panathinaikos 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Paks 31.5%
    • xG · Panathinaikos 1.38 — Paks 1.22
  2. Jul 30, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Panathinaikos 1.29 · Draw 5.24 · Paks 8.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Panathinaikos 71.2% · Draw 17.5% · Paks 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Panathinaikos 1.29 · Draw 5.24 · Paks 8.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Panathinaikos 71.2% · Draw 17.5% · Paks 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1526952

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Panathinaikos 2–2 Paks
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Panathinaikos; market prices Panathinaikos instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Panathinaikos 1.38 xG vs Paks 1.22 → Panathinaikos 39.0%
  • Market: Panathinaikos ~71.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Lean struktur (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Bawah 2.5 51.8% · Lebih 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (ya 54.4% · Tidak 45.6%) Nilai kurus (harga): O/U 2.5 Bawah 2.5; BTTS ya

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Liga Persidangan Europa UEFA Perlawanan Jejak Panathinaikos Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Paks Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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1 Aarhus GF 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjällby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos FC 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Aarhus GF 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjällby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos FC 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0