The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Haifa win 0–4).
The model had projected Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona Maccabi Haifa ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 36.1% | 23.1% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 31.6% | 25.3% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Maccabi Haifa | 32.2% | 51.6% | -19.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Maccabi Haifa's win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.2%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Maccabi Haifa win 0–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Ironi Kiryat Shmona; match finished Maccabi Haifa
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ironi Kiryat Shmona by 19.4 percentage points (55.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1% · Draw 31.6% · Maccabi Haifa 32.3%
- xG · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.20 — Maccabi Haifa 1.12
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4.11 · Draw 3.76 · Maccabi Haifa 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 23.1% · Draw 25.3% · Maccabi Haifa 51.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4.11 · Draw 3.76 · Maccabi Haifa 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 23.1% · Draw 25.3% · Maccabi Haifa 51.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Haifa win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
53/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
1/100
Monitoring Confidence
18/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maccabi Haifa win · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–4 Maccabi Haifa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"over_under": {
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
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"ev_no": 0.2032,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+20.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2094,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 51.2,
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.8
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0359,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0359,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"sort_key": 10032.31,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.4,
"hero_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"market_team": "Maccabi Haifa",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.4,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.2,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -11%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.20 xG vs Maccabi Haifa 1.12 \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1%",
"Market: Maccabi Haifa ~23.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Kiryat Shmona +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob": 36.15,
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"market_prob": 23.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob": 31.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob": 32.22,
"label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob": 51.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.26,
"fair_prob": 40.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.26,
"fair_prob": 59.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.27,
"fair_prob": 48.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.27,
"fair_prob": 51.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.22,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.62,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Maccabi Haifa\u0027s win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.2%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.20 xG vs Maccabi Haifa 1.12 \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1%",
"Market: Maccabi Haifa ~23.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Kiryat Shmona +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.4,
"hero_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Maccabi Haifa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Maccabi Haifa (pricing gap 19.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Maccabi Haifa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.04,
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"market_prob_pct": 23.11,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.37,
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.4,
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.22,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Maccabi Haifa (23.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona, Market \u2192 Maccabi Haifa, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maccabi-haifa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"away_team_id": 4195,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4195.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"away_team_public_id": "20E8GnpOLh1O4E",
"away_team_slug": "maccabi-haifa",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555505,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"home_team_id": 4510,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4510.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"home_team_public_id": "2S4cr5RQDllIaX",
"home_team_slug": "ironi-kiryat-shmona",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ironi-kiryat-shmona",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027Al",
"league_id": 383,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/383.webp",
"league_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027Al",
"league_public_id": "4qIijuRaW49qA9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2rjfVkn0RA71sG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kiryat Shmona",
"venue_name": "Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4257,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0824,
"ev": -0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.3226,
"p_final": 0.4338
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2713,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": 0.015,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.3164,
"p_final": 0.2699
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 4.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.361,
"p_final": 0.252
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.2209,
"ev": -0.4065,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.3226
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.0505,
"ev": 0.1898,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.3164
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.11,
"edge": 0.1177,
"ev": 0.4837,
"implied_prob": 0.2433,
"model_prob": 0.361
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2495,
"alpha_yes": 0.343,
"best_no_odd": 2.35,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1027,
"edge_yes": -0.1027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0186,
"ev_yes": -0.2094,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1297,
"implied_no": 0.4093,
"implied_yes": 0.5907,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"p_final": 0.4362
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.343,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.488,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4362,
"p_final_yes": 0.5544,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3058,
"alpha_under": 0.278,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.1626,
"edge_under": 0.1626,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.317,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1547,
"ev_under": 0.3416,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0232,
"implied_over": 0.5716,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5714,
"implied_under": 0.4284,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4286,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3058,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.5218
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.4737
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5218,
"p_final_under": 0.4737,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3416,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.488,
"draw_prob": 0.3164,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.361,
"over_prob": 0.409,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"under_prob": 0.591,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.361,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"p_final": 0.4362
},
"p_final": 0.4362,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0186,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.343,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.488,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"edge": 0.1027,
"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3058,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.5218
},
"p_final": 0.4737,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0232,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.4737
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1626,
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1555505,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3416,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3226,
"draw": 0.3164,
"home": 0.361
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maccabi Haifa",
"home": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.14132,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555505,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T17:00:28.547750+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligat Ha'Al — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
