AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Afula | 32.4% | 40.9% | -8.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 38.0% | 33.3% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Hapoel Afula's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Afula. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa higher (46.5% vs model 38.0%, 8.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 38.0%
- xG · Hapoel Afula 1.24 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.36
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Afula 2.24 · Draw 3.56 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 40.9% · Draw 25.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Afula 2.24 · Draw 3.56 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 40.9% · Draw 25.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win · Hapoel Afula 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"alert_team": "Hapoel Afula",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.53,
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"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0293,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.53,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.53,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"steam_team": "Hapoel Afula",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0293,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Afula 1.24 xG vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.36 \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 38.0%",
"Market: Hapoel Afula ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Afula odds \u2191 +22.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.53,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Hapoel Afula",
"market_prob": 40.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.84,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"market_prob": 33.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.37,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.8,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hapoel Afula",
"market_prob_pct": 40.92,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Afula"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hapoel Afula\u0027s win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.53,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Afula 1.24 xG vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.36 \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 38.0%",
"Market: Hapoel Afula ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Afula odds \u2191 +22.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.53,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Afula",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Hapoel Afula odds lengthened \u2191 +22.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Afula. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Afula.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Afula. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Afula."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Hapoel Afula above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Hapoel Afula (\u2191 +22.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.53,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Hapoel Afula",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hapoel Afula higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.53,
"edge_pp": -8.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hapoel Afula",
"market_prob_pct": 40.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.84,
"edge_pp": 3.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.68,
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"market_prob_pct": 33.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Afula.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hapoel Afula (33.3%).",
"However, Hapoel Afula has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +22.2%, 3/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, Market \u2192 Hapoel Afula, while Hapoel Afula odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"closing_odds": 2.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
"entry_odds": 2.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hapoel Afula (22.2%, 3/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.24",
"2.02",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.33 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 44m",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Afula",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.24,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Afula",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hapoel Afula",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Hapoel Afula",
"steam_score": 59,
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Afula",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"away_team_id": 6192,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6192.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"away_team_public_id": "1S7Uu0QcslBp9M",
"away_team_slug": "maccabi-kabilio-jaffa",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555132,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Hapoel Afula",
"home_team_id": 4483,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4483.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hapoel Afula",
"home_team_public_id": "1rF1gmQPfoQLpE",
"home_team_slug": "hapoel-afula",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Liga Leumit",
"league_id": 382,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/382.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Leumit",
"league_public_id": "1DJVjvuHAOkKJ3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3zOkdt49QOx1tK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4183,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0293,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.4092
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.353
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2827,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.2575,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.4092
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2684
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3923,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1585,
"implied_prob": 0.4092,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.4092
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3757
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": 0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.1227,
"ev": -0.2749,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2181,
"alpha_yes": 0.2399,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.018,
"edge_yes": -0.018,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0333,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0761,
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0935,
"implied_no": 0.438,
"implied_yes": 0.562,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2399,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0935,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5596
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.44,
"p_final_yes": 0.5596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2137,
"alpha_under": 0.2137,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.915,
"edge_over": -0.0337,
"edge_under": 0.0337,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.085,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"implied_over": 0.5157,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5155,
"implied_under": 0.4843,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4845,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.085,
"implied_prob": 0.5155,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5083
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4845,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4917
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5083,
"p_final_under": 0.4917,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0536,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0293,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0458,
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"xg_calibration": {
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"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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"type": "balanced",
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"match_regime": {
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Hapoel Afula"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
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},
"fixture_id": 1555132,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T16:00:13.688937+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Leumit — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Ashdod | 6 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 19 | -19 | 0 |
