AI correctly predicted the Rapperswil win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Rapperswil Rapperswil ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 29.7% | 37.7% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.6% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Rapperswil | 40.9% | 39.7% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Stade Nyonnais's win probability at 37.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Rapperswil win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stade Nyonnais. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rapperswil higher (48.9% vs model 40.9%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rapperswil win 1–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Rapperswil 41.0%
- xG · Stade Nyonnais 1.18 — Rapperswil 1.42
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 2.53 · Draw 4.22 · Rapperswil 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 37.7% · Draw 22.6% · Rapperswil 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 2.53 · Draw 4.22 · Rapperswil 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 37.7% · Draw 22.6% · Rapperswil 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rapperswil win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Cabaran — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Neuchâtel Xamax FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Kriens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | FC Wil 1900 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 8 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 20 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Neuchâtel Xamax FC | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Rapperswil | 8 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | SC Kriens | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Wil 1900 | 8 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 |
