The model missed the final outcome (Portuguesa RJ win 1–3).
The model had projected Noroeste at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Noroeste Portuguesa RJ ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noroeste | 35.2% | 46.2% | -11.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.4% | 31.8% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Portuguesa RJ | 34.4% | 22.0% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Portuguesa RJ's win probability at 34.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.0%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Portuguesa RJ win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Portuguesa RJ.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Noroeste; match finished Portuguesa RJ
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Noroeste by 12.5 percentage points (22.7% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 28, 2026 · 20:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Noroeste 35.2% · Draw 30.4% · Portuguesa RJ 34.5%
- xG · Noroeste 1.23 — Portuguesa RJ 1.37
-
Jun 28, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Noroeste 2.20 · Draw 2.76 · Portuguesa RJ 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Noroeste 41.1% · Draw 32.8% · Portuguesa RJ 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 28, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Noroeste 1.98 · Draw 2.88 · Portuguesa RJ 4.17
- Implied 1X2 · Noroeste 46.2% · Draw 31.8% · Portuguesa RJ 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 28, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Portuguesa RJ win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie D Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manauara | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | São Raimundo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional AM | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Manauara | 10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | São Raimundo | 10 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
