AI correctly predicted the Badajoz win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Badajoz Badajoz ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Badajoz win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Badajoz 1.33 — Cuarte 1.27
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Badajoz win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Badajoz win · Badajoz 2–1 Cuarte
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"match_winner": {
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},
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"model_prob": 28.2,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"alert_team": "Cuarte",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"market_prob_pct": 53.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"model_team": "Badajoz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"label": "Badajoz",
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"label": "Draw",
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},
{
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"label": "Cuarte",
"market_prob": 16.76,
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.45,
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"label": "Under 2.5",
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"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.17,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.17,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.66,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Badajoz",
"market_prob_pct": 53.13,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cuarte"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Badajoz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 53.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Badajoz, but the market prices them higher (53.1% vs model 41.7%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.47,
"hero_label": "Badajoz",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cuarte odds lengthened \u2191 +3.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Cuarte has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Badajoz than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Cuarte \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Badajoz than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Cuarte has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Cuarte \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Badajoz more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Cuarte has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/10) supports the current market view on Cuarte."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 41.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.66,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Badajoz",
"market_prob_pct": 53.13,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.11,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.19,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cuarte",
"market_prob_pct": 16.76,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Cuarte \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Badajoz (53.1%).",
"Cuarte has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +3.9%, 7/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Badajoz, Market \u2192 Badajoz, Recent sharp money \u2192 Cuarte.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Cuarte (3.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "5.93 \u2192 3.65 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"pick_team": "Cuarte",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.93"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,15.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
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"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/10 sportsbooks on Cuarte",
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"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"away_team_name": "Cuarte",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
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"home_team_name": "Badajoz",
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"league_logo": "/static/leagues/977.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Promosi - Play-off",
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"value_side": "over"
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},
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"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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"stake_mult": 1.0,
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"slot": "secondary"
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{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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],
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"teams": {
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},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:18:05.882392+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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