The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Wisła Kraków at 42.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Wisła Kraków Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 29.6% | 42.0% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.6% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Wisła Kraków | 42.6% | 30.4% | +12.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Korona Kielce's win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Korona Kielce than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Wisła Kraków; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wisła Kraków by 12.4 percentage points (55.0% vs model 42.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Korona Kielce 29.6% · Draw 27.8% · Wisła Kraków 42.6%
- xG · Korona Kielce 1.28 — Wisła Kraków 1.57
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Korona Kielce 2.29 · Draw 3.48 · Wisła Kraków 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Korona Kielce 42.0% · Draw 27.6% · Wisła Kraków 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Korona Kielce 2.29 · Draw 3.48 · Wisła Kraków 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Korona Kielce 42.0% · Draw 27.6% · Wisła Kraków 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisła Kraków
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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"away_score_rate": 79.2,
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"pick": "Yes",
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 35.0,
"implied_prob": 31.5,
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"label": "Away",
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"model_prob": 42.6,
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.35,
"draw": 27.64,
"home": 42.01
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-05 15:29:10",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-05 15:00:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Korona Kielce",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.01,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.64,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.35,
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
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"market_prob": 0.1408,
"market_prob_pct": 14.1,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.057,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"featured": true,
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"implied_prob": 0.3035,
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
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"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_under": null,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 54.2,
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"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 45.8,
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},
{
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"ev_yes": null,
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"alert_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.39,
"hero_label": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"market_team": "Korona Kielce",
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"model_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.057,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3501,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553157 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.057,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3501,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.15384615384615385,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.39,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.57,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.57 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"steam_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.057,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3501,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553157 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.057,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3501,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Korona Kielce 1.28 xG vs Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w 1.57 \u2192 Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w 42.6%",
"Market: Korona Kielce ~30.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.39,
"fair_prob": 29.62,
"label": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob": 42.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob": 27.75,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.28,
"fair_prob": 42.63,
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob": 30.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.62,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob_pct": 42.01,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Korona Kielce\u0027s win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Korona Kielce 1.28 xG vs Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w 1.57 \u2192 Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w 42.6%",
"Market: Korona Kielce ~30.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.39,
"hero_label": "Korona Kielce",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w odds lengthened \u2191 +4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Korona Kielce than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Korona Kielce than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Korona Kielce more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.0 pp (at 42.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.0,
"max_prob_pct": 42.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Korona Kielce",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Korona Kielce higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.39,
"edge_pp": -12.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.62,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob_pct": 42.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.11,
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.28,
"edge_pp": 12.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 30.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Korona Kielce (30.4%).",
"Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.2%, 2/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, Market \u2192 Korona Kielce, while Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w (swing 3.25 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 4.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.17",
"3.02",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 8m",
"pick_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.17,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"away_team_id": 338,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/338.webp",
"away_team_name": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"away_team_public_id": "0RX8hbJEUTsO1M",
"away_team_slug": "wisla-krakow",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553157,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Korona Kielce",
"home_team_id": 346,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/346.webp",
"home_team_name": "Korona Kielce",
"home_team_public_id": "2wCVpd4iVep4Rq",
"home_team_slug": "korona-kielce",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_public_id": "4NuE63mQgH9Lz4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-05 15:30:00",
"public_id": "30O8ao46zHJerz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kielce",
"venue_name": "Exbud Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2449,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3035,
"draw": 0.2764,
"home": 0.4201
},
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"p_final": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2993,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.2764,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3035,
"draw": 0.2764,
"home": 0.4201
},
"model_prob": 0.278,
"p_final": 0.2769
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3663,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0454,
"ev": -0.142,
"implied_prob": 0.4201,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3035,
"draw": 0.2764,
"home": 0.4201
},
"model_prob": 0.2961,
"p_final": 0.3747
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.1104,
"ev": 0.3501,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.4259
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.0325,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.278
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1406,
"ev": -0.3219,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.2961
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.057,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3501,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.057,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.057,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3501,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553157 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w, but the model still strongly favours Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.057,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
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},
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"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.278,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4259,
"over_prob": 0.542,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"under_prob": 0.458,
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},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.587,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"edge": null,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553157,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.057,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.278,
"home": 0.2961
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"home": "Korona Kielce"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.057,
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Wis\u0142a Krak\u00f3w",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.057,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553157,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T15:29:12.451695+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ekstraklasa — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
