The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Jong AZ at 36.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Jong AZ Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV | 35.5% | 37.6% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.4% | 22.5% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Jong AZ | 36.0% | 39.9% | -3.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Jong AZ; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jong AZ by 5.9 percentage points (30.1% vs model 36.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jong PSV 35.6% · Draw 28.4% · Jong AZ 36.0%
- xG · Jong PSV 1.39 — Jong AZ 1.40
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jong PSV 2.53 · Draw 4.23 · Jong AZ 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Jong PSV 37.6% · Draw 22.5% · Jong AZ 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Jong PSV 2.53 · Draw 4.23 · Jong AZ 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Jong PSV 37.6% · Draw 22.5% · Jong AZ 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Jong PSV 1–1 Jong AZ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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},
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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}
]
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.2505,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-25.1%"
},
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"no_prob": 41.9,
"sort_key": 10514.17,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 58.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0868,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.7,
"text": "-8.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0022,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1401,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Jong AZ",
"sort_key": 2199.824,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Jong AZ",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.93,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.9,
"market_team": "Jong AZ",
"model_prob_pct": 36.0,
"model_team": "Jong AZ",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8408,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8408,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong AZ at 36.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong AZ as the value side (36.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong AZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +84.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +84.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +84.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+84.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0868,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1401,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5454545454545454,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Jong AZ",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8408,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8408,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong AZ at 36.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong AZ as the value side (36.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong AZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +84.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +84.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +84.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+84.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0868,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1401,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jong PSV 1.39 xG vs Jong AZ 1.40 \u2192 Jong AZ 36.0%",
"Market: Jong AZ ~39.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong AZ odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Jong AZ, but the market has moved away from Jong AZ.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 35.55,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob": 37.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob": 28.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.84,
"fair_prob": 36.01,
"label": "Jong AZ",
"market_prob": 39.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.53,
"fair_prob": 52.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.53,
"fair_prob": 47.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.65,
"fair_prob": 58.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 73.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.65,
"fair_prob": 41.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 26.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.44,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.51,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Jong AZ"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Jong AZ",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jong PSV 1.39 xG vs Jong AZ 1.40 \u2192 Jong AZ 36.0%",
"Market: Jong AZ ~39.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong AZ odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Jong AZ, but the market has moved away from Jong AZ.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.93,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Jong AZ odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Jong AZ has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Jong AZ \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Jong AZ has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Jong AZ \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Jong AZ has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.5,
"max_prob_pct": 36.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.9,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.09,
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.55,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 37.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.93,
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.51,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.84,
"edge_pp": -3.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jong AZ",
"market_prob_pct": 39.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Jong AZ \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Jong AZ (39.9%).",
"Jong AZ odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.4%, 6/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jong AZ, Market \u2192 Jong AZ, while Jong AZ odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.64,
"closing_odds": 4.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.64,
"entry_odds": 4.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 7m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Jong AZ (11.4%, 6/11) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.33",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.06 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 7m",
"pick_team": "Jong AZ",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.39,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/11 sportsbooks on Jong AZ",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Jong AZ",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Jong AZ while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Jong AZ",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Jong AZ",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Jong AZ",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jong-az",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jong AZ",
"away_team_id": 418,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/418.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jong AZ",
"away_team_public_id": "31Abjf8DfDmURC",
"away_team_slug": "jong-az",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551817,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_id": 411,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/411.webp",
"home_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_public_id": "08XBadEwEl50Ee",
"home_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4dbbi5ZvbAAsj2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Eindhoven",
"venue_name": "De Herdgang"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4239,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3985,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.3764
},
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1823,
"best_odd": 4.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0022,
"implied_prob": 0.2251,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3985,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.3764
},
"model_prob": 0.2842,
"p_final": 0.2359
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4362,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0089,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.3764,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3985,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.3764
},
"model_prob": 0.356,
"p_final": 0.3675
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0586,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3598
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.23,
"edge": 0.0478,
"ev": 0.2021,
"implied_prob": 0.2364,
"model_prob": 0.2842
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0393,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.356
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1408,
"alpha_yes": 0.3098,
"best_no_odd": 3.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.29,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1565,
"edge_yes": -0.1565,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5713,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0022,
"ev_yes": -0.2505,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1393,
"implied_no": 0.2625,
"implied_yes": 0.7375,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0022,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"p_final": 0.2851
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3098,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0483,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.7368,
"model_prob": 0.581,
"p_final": 0.6886
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.2851,
"p_final_yes": 0.6886,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.275,
"alpha_under": 0.125,
"best_over_odd": 1.28,
"best_under_odd": 3.9,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.58,
"edge_over": -0.2153,
"edge_under": 0.2153,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3242,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1468,
"ev_under": 0.8408,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0219,
"implied_over": 0.7433,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7412,
"implied_under": 0.2567,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2588,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0586,
"ev": -0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.7412,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.6826
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.125,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.2588,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"p_final": 0.2854
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6826,
"p_final_under": 0.2854,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8408,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8408,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.8408,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8408,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8408,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong AZ at 36.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong AZ as the value side (36.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong AZ",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +84.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +84.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +84.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+84.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Jong AZ, but the model still strongly favours Jong AZ.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1401,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.581,
"draw_prob": 0.2842,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3598,
"over_prob": 0.528,
"total_xg": 2.79,
"under_prob": 0.472,
"xg_diff": 0.01
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jong AZ"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0219,
"market_prob": 0.2632,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.419,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0022,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"p_final": 0.2851
},
"p_final": 0.2851,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0022,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3098,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0483,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.7368,
"model_prob": 0.581,
"p_final": 0.6886
}
},
"edge": 0.1565,
"ev": 0.5713,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.125,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0266,
"market_prob": 0.2588,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.472,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0586,
"ev": -0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.7412,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.6826
},
"p_final": 0.2854,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0219,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.125,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.2588,
"model_prob": 0.472,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2153,
"ev": 0.8408,
"implied_prob": 0.2567,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551817,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.8408,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3598,
"draw": 0.2842,
"home": 0.356
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5713,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.419,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.5713,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.419,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jong AZ",
"home": "Jong PSV"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.396858,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8408,
"implied_prob": 0.2567,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.472,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0868,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3598,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1401,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551817,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T17:59:19.174309+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Jong PSV & Jong AZ!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Eerste Divisie — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Emmen | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Volendam | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 5 | Waalwijk | 7 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Volendam | 7 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Emmen | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | NAC Breda | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 7 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Dordrecht | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 18 | FC OSS | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| 20 | Roda | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 12 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 7 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 9 |
| 2 | Heracles | 7 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 18 |
| 3 | Emmen | 7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 12 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 7 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 10 |
| 5 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 13 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 16 |
| 11 | Roda | 7 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 12 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 4 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 8 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 8 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 7 |
