The model missed the final outcome (Vitesse win 3–1).
The model had projected Jong PSV at 39.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Jong PSV Vitesse ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 35.2% | 59.1% | -23.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.1% | 20.6% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Jong PSV | 39.8% | 20.3% | +19.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Vitesse's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Vitesse win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.41) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Jong PSV; match finished Vitesse
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jong PSV by 23.9 percentage points (63.8% vs model 39.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vitesse 35.2% · Draw 25.1% · Jong PSV 39.7%
- xG · Vitesse 1.65 — Jong PSV 1.76
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Vitesse 1.60 · Draw 4.59 · Jong PSV 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · Vitesse 59.1% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vitesse 1.60 · Draw 4.59 · Jong PSV 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · Vitesse 59.1% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vitesse win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vitesse win · Vitesse 3–1 Jong PSV
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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}
],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_played": 7,
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"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 80.8,
"no_prob": 31.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 68.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 68.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.76,
"home_expected": 1.65,
"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 5.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vitesse or Draw",
"prob": 60.3
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 75.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Jong PSV",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vitesse or Jong PSV",
"pick_prob": 75.0
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.41,
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"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"under_prob": 33.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"odds": 4.67
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.26,
"draw": 20.61,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:29:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:20:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vitesse",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.13,
"gap_pp": -23.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.61,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.26,
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{
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{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
"closing": 4.59,
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{
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},
{
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{
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"ev": -0.04,
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"label": "1-1",
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
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"label": "1-1",
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},
"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.65,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0747,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 7.5,
"text": "+7.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0747,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+7.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.397,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Jong PSV",
"sort_key": 10217.23,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.006,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.3159,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.338,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3722,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.6841,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.6759
},
"p_final": 0.3219,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0266,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0729,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0467,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-4.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0985,
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"text": "+9.8%"
},
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"over_prob": 66.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.6453,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.681,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.265,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.3547,
"model_prob": 0.319,
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},
"p_final": 0.6583,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0194,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.052,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.6453,
"model_prob": 0.681,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1387,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0351,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.5,
"text": "+3.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0351,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 31.9,
"sort_key": 10031.59,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 68.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"alert_team": "Jong PSV",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.95,
"hero_label": "Vitesse",
"market_prob_pct": 20.3,
"market_team": "Vitesse",
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_team": "Jong PSV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0985,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 39.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (39.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Jong PSV \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0747,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21413276231263384,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 30.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.95,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.76,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 30.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.65,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.76,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.65 \u00b7 Away xG 1.76 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +30%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"steam_team": "Jong PSV",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0985,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 39.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (39.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Jong PSV \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0747,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21413276231263384,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 30.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vitesse 1.65 xG vs Jong PSV 1.76 \u2192 Jong PSV 39.8%",
"Market: Vitesse ~20.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong PSV odds \u2191 +22.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Jong PSV, but the market has moved away from Jong PSV.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.95,
"fair_prob": 35.18,
"label": "Vitesse",
"market_prob": 59.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.46,
"fair_prob": 25.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.49,
"fair_prob": 39.75,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob": 20.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob": 66.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.43,
"fair_prob": 33.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob": 68.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.03,
"fair_prob": 31.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.18,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Vitesse",
"market_prob_pct": 59.13,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Jong PSV"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Vitesse\u0027s win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Jong PSV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vitesse 1.65 xG vs Jong PSV 1.76 \u2192 Jong PSV 39.8%",
"Market: Vitesse ~20.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong PSV odds \u2191 +22.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Jong PSV, but the market has moved away from Jong PSV.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.95,
"hero_label": "Vitesse",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Jong PSV odds lengthened \u2191 +22.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.6 pp (at 39.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.6,
"max_prob_pct": 39.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Vitesse",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Vitesse higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.95,
"edge_pp": -23.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.18,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vitesse",
"market_prob_pct": 59.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.46,
"edge_pp": 4.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 19.49,
"edge_pp": 19.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 20.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vitesse (20.3%).",
"However, Jong PSV has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +22.0%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jong PSV, Market \u2192 Vitesse, while Jong PSV odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"closing_odds": 1.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.5,
"entry_odds": 1.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Jong PSV (22.0%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.55",
"4.10"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 58m",
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
4.67,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Jong PSV",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Jong PSV while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Jong PSV",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_id": 411,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/411.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_public_id": "08XBadEwEl50Ee",
"away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551805,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Vitesse",
"home_team_id": 200,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/200.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vitesse",
"home_team_public_id": "23zuDckwqmWkgi",
"home_team_slug": "vitesse",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vitesse",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:30:00",
"public_id": "2weALACo4tfN3K",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Arnhem",
"venue_name": "GelreDome"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 4.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2061,
"home": 0.5913
},
"model_prob": 0.397,
"p_final": 0.2301
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1866,
"best_odd": 4.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0157,
"implied_prob": 0.2061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2061,
"home": 0.5913
},
"model_prob": 0.2507,
"p_final": 0.2144
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3849,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.092,
"ev": -0.2011,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2061,
"home": 0.5913
},
"model_prob": 0.3523,
"p_final": 0.4993
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.67,
"edge": 0.1829,
"ev": 0.854,
"implied_prob": 0.2141,
"model_prob": 0.397
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.59,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.2179,
"model_prob": 0.2507
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.2727,
"ev": -0.4364,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.3523
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.265,
"alpha_yes": 0.3644,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0403,
"edge_yes": 0.0403,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1387,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0955,
"ev_yes": 0.0351,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.052,
"implied_no": 0.3593,
"implied_yes": 0.6407,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.265,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.3547,
"model_prob": 0.319,
"p_final": 0.3452
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.6453,
"model_prob": 0.681,
"p_final": 0.6583
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3452,
"p_final_yes": 0.6583,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3722,
"alpha_under": 0.2707,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 3.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.88,
"edge_over": -0.0243,
"edge_under": 0.0243,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0467,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1011,
"ev_under": 0.0985,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0729,
"implied_over": 0.6863,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6841,
"implied_under": 0.3137,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3159,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3722,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.6841,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.6759
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.3219
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6759,
"p_final_under": 0.3219,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.41,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0985,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.854,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0985,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0985,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 39.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (39.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Jong PSV \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Jong PSV, but the model still strongly favours Jong PSV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0747,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21413276231263384,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 30.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.681,
"draw_prob": 0.2507,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.397,
"over_prob": 0.662,
"total_xg": 3.41,
"under_prob": 0.338,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.3137,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.338,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "under",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0747,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.397,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jong PSV"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.6453,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.681,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.265,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.3547,
"model_prob": 0.319,
"p_final": 0.3452
},
"p_final": 0.6583,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.052,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.6453,
"model_prob": 0.681,
"p_final": 0.6583
}
},
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": 0.0351,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6407,
"model_prob": 0.681,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.3159,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.338,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3722,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.6841,
"model_prob": 0.662,
"p_final": 0.6759
},
"p_final": 0.3219,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0729,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.3219
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": 0.0985,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3137,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551805,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0985,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.397,
"draw": 0.2507,
"home": 0.3523
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jong PSV",
"home": "Vitesse"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023725,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.397,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jong PSV",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0747,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 4.67,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21413276231263384,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551805,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:29:29.144996+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Vitesse & Jong PSV!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Eerste Divisie — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 8 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 8 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Almere City FC | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Emmen | 8 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Roda | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 8 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 12 |
| 2 | Heracles | 8 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 21 |
| 3 | Emmen | 8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 15 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 8 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 13 |
| 5 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 16 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 16 |
| 11 | Roda | 8 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 8 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 4 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 8 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 8 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 7 |
