The model missed the final outcome (Helmond Sport win 3–1).
The model had projected Jong PSV at 45.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Jong PSV Helmond Sport ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 26.5% | 34.7% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.2% | 24.6% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Jong PSV | 45.2% | 40.7% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Helmond Sport's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.5%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Helmond Sport win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Helmond Sport. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jong PSV by 8.2 percentage points (53.4% vs model 45.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Helmond Sport 26.5% · Draw 28.2% · Jong PSV 45.2%
- xG · Helmond Sport 1.15 — Jong PSV 1.56
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Helmond Sport 2.74 · Draw 3.87 · Jong PSV 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Helmond Sport 34.7% · Draw 24.6% · Jong PSV 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Helmond Sport 2.74 · Draw 3.87 · Jong PSV 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Helmond Sport 34.7% · Draw 24.6% · Jong PSV 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Helmond Sport win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
58/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Helmond Sport win · Helmond Sport 3–1 Jong PSV
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0035,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Jong PSV",
"sort_key": 2199.72,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"alert_team": "Helmond Sport",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.22,
"hero_label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"market_team": "Jong PSV",
"model_prob_pct": 45.2,
"model_team": "Jong PSV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.56,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.56,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.56 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"steam_team": "Helmond Sport",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Helmond Sport 1.15 xG vs Jong PSV 1.56 \u2192 Jong PSV 45.2%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Helmond Sport odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Jong PSV projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob": 26.51,
"label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob": 34.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 28.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 45.25,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.55,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob": 55.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.81,
"fair_prob": 44.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.51,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 34.73,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Helmond Sport"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Helmond Sport\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 26.5%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Jong PSV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 45.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Jong PSV \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Helmond Sport 1.15 xG vs Jong PSV 1.56 \u2192 Jong PSV 45.2%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Helmond Sport odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Jong PSV projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.22,
"hero_label": "Helmond Sport",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Helmond Sport odds lengthened \u2191 +14.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Helmond Sport. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Helmond Sport. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Helmond Sport above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Helmond Sport (\u2191 +14.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/14) supports the current market view on Helmond Sport."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Helmond Sport",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Helmond Sport higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.22,
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 34.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.65,
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.58,
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Jong PSV (40.7%).",
"Helmond Sport odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.9%, 11/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Jong PSV \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.5,
"closing_odds": 2.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.5,
"entry_odds": 2.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Helmond Sport (14.9%, 11/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.74",
"2.54",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.74 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 31m",
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.74,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/14 sportsbooks on Helmond Sport",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Helmond Sport",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_id": 411,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/411.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_public_id": "08XBadEwEl50Ee",
"away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551789,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Helmond Sport",
"home_team_id": 424,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/424.webp",
"home_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"home_team_public_id": "475LpAGs7Lh4Wc",
"home_team_slug": "helmond-sport",
"ht.home_team_slug": "helmond-sport",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2SiuxqZeXLlU4Z",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Helmond",
"venue_name": "GS Staalwerken Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4192,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"p_final": 0.4259
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.2459,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.2824,
"p_final": 0.2563
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3945,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.3473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.2652,
"p_final": 0.3149
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.4524
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2824
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.0998,
"ev": -0.2734,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2652
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2465,
"alpha_yes": 0.339,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.43,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1081,
"edge_yes": -0.1081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2816,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0007,
"ev_yes": -0.2063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1234,
"implied_no": 0.3369,
"implied_yes": 0.6631,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.555,
"p_final": 0.6262
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3639,
"p_final_yes": 0.6262,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3237,
"alpha_under": 0.2354,
"best_over_odd": 1.48,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.58,
"edge_over": -0.1355,
"edge_under": 0.1355,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2467,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1377,
"ev_under": 0.3502,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0048,
"implied_over": 0.6445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6418,
"implied_under": 0.3555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3237,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6418,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5988
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.3895
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5988,
"p_final_under": 0.3895,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.555,
"draw_prob": 0.2824,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4524,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"under_prob": 0.491,
"xg_diff": 0.41
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jong PSV"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"market_prob": 0.3373,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"p_final": 0.3639,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0007,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.555,
"p_final": 0.6262
}
},
"edge": 0.1081,
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"market_prob": 0.3582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3237,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6418,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5988
},
"p_final": 0.3895,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0048,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.3895
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1355,
"ev": 0.3502,
"implied_prob": 0.3555,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551789,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3502,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4524,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.2652
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jong PSV",
"home": "Helmond Sport"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.171948,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3502,
"implied_prob": 0.3555,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551789,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:59:33.900716+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Helmond Sport & Jong PSV!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Eerste Divisie — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 8 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 8 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Almere City FC | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Emmen | 8 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Roda | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 8 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 12 |
| 2 | Heracles | 8 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 21 |
| 3 | Emmen | 8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 15 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 8 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 13 |
| 5 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 16 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 16 |
| 11 | Roda | 8 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 8 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 4 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 8 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 8 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 7 |
