The model missed the final outcome (Jong PSV win 3–1).
The model had projected Den Bosch at 39.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Den Bosch Jong PSV ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.52) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Jong PSV win 3–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Jong PSV 1.71 — Den Bosch 1.81
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Jong PSV win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Jong PSV win · Jong PSV 3–1 Den Bosch
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dba603cc81e40786710576046dd806b1c0fc06763591421b071edbff80e92dfb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3976,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.303,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.697,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2457,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.07,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.8,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.71,
"home_win_prob": 0.3567,
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"over_25_prob": 0.683,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.317
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Jong PSV or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Jong PSV"
},
"away_xg": 1.81,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Den Bosch",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1053,
"edge_gap": 0.0412,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3979,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.8,
"draw": 24.5,
"home": 35.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.25
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"best_odds": 3.25,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Den Bosch Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.42,
"market_odds": 3.25,
"model_odds": 2.51,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 9.1,
"value_pct": 29.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 83.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 81.9,
"no_prob": 30.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 69.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 69.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.81,
"home_expected": 1.71,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Jong PSV or Draw",
"prob": 60.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Jong PSV or Den Bosch",
"prob": 75.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Den Bosch",
"prob": 64.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Jong PSV or Den Bosch",
"pick_prob": 75.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.8,
"draw_pct": 24.6,
"home_pct": 35.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Den Bosch"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.52,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 68.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.52,
"under_prob": 31.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 29.5,
"implied_prob": 30.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Den Bosch Win",
"model_prob": 39.8,
"odds": 3.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Den Bosch",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.26,
"draw": 22.48,
"home": 48.27
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 17:59:14",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 17:29:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Jong PSV",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.27,
"gap_pp": -12.6,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.48,
"gap_pp": 2.06,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.26,
"gap_pp": 10.53,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 74.09,
"gap_pp": -5.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 68.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.91,
"gap_pp": 5.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 31.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.97,
"early": 1.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.27,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.23,
"early": 4.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.26,
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},
{
"closing": 1.28,
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"implied_closing_pct": 74.09,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.66,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.034,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.5,
"market_prob": 0.0952,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.71,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.171,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.435,
"edge": 0.0079,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.2707,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.317,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3762,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.7293,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"p_final": 0.7119
},
"p_final": 0.2786,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0079,
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"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"model_prob": 0.317,
"p_final": 0.2786
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1121,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2046,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.5,
"text": "+20.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2046,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 68.3,
"sort_key": 10184.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 31.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1764,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.35,
"edge": 0.0047,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.2765,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.303,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1764,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
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},
"p_final": 0.2811,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0151,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3882,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.7235,
"model_prob": 0.697,
"p_final": 0.7132
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0605,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.073,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0605,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 30.3,
"sort_key": 10054.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 69.7
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0373,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0373,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3979,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Den Bosch",
"sort_key": 10033.57,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"alert_team": "Jong PSV",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.6,
"hero_label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"market_team": "Jong PSV",
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_team": "Den Bosch",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2046,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2932,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Den Bosch at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Den Bosch as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Den Bosch",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Den Bosch \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551785 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3979,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 34.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.6,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.81,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 34.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.71,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.81,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.71 \u00b7 Away xG 1.81 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +34%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"steam_team": "Jong PSV",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2046,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2932,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Den Bosch at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Den Bosch as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Den Bosch",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Den Bosch \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551785 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3979,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 34.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jong PSV 1.71 xG vs Den Bosch 1.81 \u2192 Den Bosch 39.8%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~29.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong PSV odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Den Bosch with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.6,
"fair_prob": 35.67,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob": 48.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob": 24.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob": 39.76,
"label": "Den Bosch",
"market_prob": 29.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob": 68.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 73.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.08,
"fair_prob": 31.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 26.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob": 69.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 72.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.49,
"fair_prob": 30.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 27.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.67,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 48.27,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Jong PSV"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Jong PSV\u0027s win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Den Bosch",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Den Bosch \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jong PSV 1.71 xG vs Den Bosch 1.81 \u2192 Den Bosch 39.8%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~29.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Jong PSV odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Den Bosch with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.6,
"hero_label": "Jong PSV",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Jong PSV odds lengthened \u2191 +2.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Jong PSV than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Jong PSV than the current fair estimate.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Jong PSV more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Jong PSV (\u2191 +2.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.1 pp (at 39.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.1,
"max_prob_pct": 39.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Jong PSV",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Jong PSV higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.6,
"edge_pp": -12.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.67,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 48.27,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.09,
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.5,
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Den Bosch",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Jong PSV (29.3%).",
"Jong PSV odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.6%, 1/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Den Bosch, Market \u2192 Jong PSV, while Jong PSV odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Jong PSV (swing 2.05 \u2192 1.89 \u2192 1.95) \u2014 net 2.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.97",
"1.94",
"1.90"
],
"display": "2.05 \u2192 1.89 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 45m",
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.9,
1.97,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.1",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Jong PSV",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Jong PSV",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "den-bosch",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Den Bosch",
"away_team_id": 421,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/421.webp",
"away_team_name": "Den Bosch",
"away_team_public_id": "2P37HS3MFqE8XD",
"away_team_slug": "den-bosch",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551785,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_id": 411,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/411.webp",
"home_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Jong PSV",
"home_team_public_id": "08XBadEwEl50Ee",
"home_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2wW8VXK90qL8qz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Eindhoven",
"venue_name": "De Herdgang"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2526,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.0373,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2926,
"draw": 0.2248,
"home": 0.4827
},
"model_prob": 0.3979,
"p_final": 0.3192
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1938,
"best_odd": 4.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.2248,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2926,
"draw": 0.2248,
"home": 0.4827
},
"model_prob": 0.2454,
"p_final": 0.2288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4866,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0613,
"ev": -0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.4827,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2926,
"draw": 0.2248,
"home": 0.4827
},
"model_prob": 0.3567,
"p_final": 0.4214
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0902,
"ev": 0.2932,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3979
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.23,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": 0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.2364,
"model_prob": 0.2454
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.1509,
"ev": -0.2973,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.3567
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1764,
"alpha_yes": 0.3882,
"best_no_odd": 3.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0249,
"edge_yes": -0.0249,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0605,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"ev_yes": -0.073,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0871,
"implied_no": 0.2781,
"implied_yes": 0.7219,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1764,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"model_prob": 0.303,
"p_final": 0.2811
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3882,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.7235,
"model_prob": 0.697,
"p_final": 0.7132
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.2811,
"p_final_yes": 0.7132,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3762,
"alpha_under": 0.171,
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.275,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.435,
"edge_over": -0.0508,
"edge_under": 0.0508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1121,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0923,
"ev_under": 0.2046,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0429,
"implied_over": 0.7338,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7293,
"implied_under": 0.2662,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2707,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3762,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.7293,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"p_final": 0.7119
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.171,
"best_odd": 3.435,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"model_prob": 0.317,
"p_final": 0.2786
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7119,
"p_final_under": 0.2786,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.52,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2046,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2932,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2046,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2046,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2932,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Den Bosch at 39.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Den Bosch as the value side (39.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Den Bosch",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Den Bosch \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551785 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Den Bosch).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
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"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
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"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 34.1,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2454,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3979,
"over_prob": 0.683,
"total_xg": 3.52,
"under_prob": 0.317,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.2046,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2662,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.317,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
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"not_dominant": true,
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{
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],
"markets": {
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Den Bosch"
},
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"edge": 0.0047,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0047,
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},
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
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},
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"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0079,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
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},
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"under": {
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551785,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "longshot",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_longshot_only",
"max_valid_ev": 0.2046,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.1,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2454,
"home": 0.3567
},
"reason_codes": [
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"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Den Bosch",
"home": "Jong PSV"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3979,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551785,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T17:59:16.444076+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Eerste Divisie — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 10 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 | Emmen | 10 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 | Jong AZ | 10 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 10 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Waalwijk | 10 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | FC OSS | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Jong PSV | 10 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Den Bosch | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 16 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 10 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
| 20 | Roda | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 12.6 | 6.8 | +5.8 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Volendam | 10 | 10.7 | 6.4 | +4.3 | 15 |
| 3 | NAC Breda | 10 | 10.5 | 7.1 | +3.4 | 17 |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 10 | 10.0 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 22 |
| 5 | Emmen | 10 | 10.4 | 7.2 | +3.2 | 19 |
| 6 | Den Bosch | 10 | 10.5 | 7.8 | +2.7 | 11 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 10 | 9.9 | 7.3 | +2.6 | 13 |
| 8 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 7.0 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 16 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 10 | 9.3 | 7.8 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 10 | Roda | 10 | 9.7 | 8.5 | +1.2 | 16 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 7.7 | 6.6 | +1.1 | 13 |
| 12 | FC OSS | 10 | 8.1 | 8.7 | -0.6 | 12 |
| 13 | Waalwijk | 10 | 5.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | 14 |
| 14 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 8.1 | 10.3 | -2.2 | 21 |
| 15 | De Graafschap | 10 | 7.0 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 11 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 9.8 | 13.2 | -3.4 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 7.0 | 11.2 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 4.1 | 9.0 | -4.9 | 9 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 6.0 | 11.9 | -5.9 | 8 |
| 20 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 4.4 | 11.0 | -6.6 | 11 |
