AI correctly predicted the Emmen win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Emmen Emmen ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 1-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 51.7% | 38.7% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.7% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Roda | 26.5% | 36.6% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Emmen's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.7%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Emmen win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Emmen attacking xG significantly stronger (2.30 vs 1.64)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Emmen more conservatively (38.7% vs model 51.7%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Emmen win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Emmen 51.8% · Draw 21.8% · Roda 26.4%
- xG · Emmen 2.30 — Roda 1.64
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Emmen 2.46 · Draw 3.86 · Roda 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Emmen 38.7% · Draw 24.7% · Roda 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Emmen 2.46 · Draw 3.86 · Roda 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Emmen 38.7% · Draw 24.7% · Roda 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Emmen win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
34/100
Betting Confidence
40/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.46
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Emmen win · Emmen 1–0 Roda
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5accbb86cf33ea4c9a1e0a1c160d2f51ee54d724c45bd9acf9fb2a3a0e0aed98",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.64,
"away_win_prob": 0.2646,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.265,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.218,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.78,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.59,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.93,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.5174,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.753,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.247
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Roda",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Emmen",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Roda"
},
"away_xg": 1.64,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Emmen",
"confidence": 51.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Emmen",
"edge": 0.1308,
"edge_gap": 0.2534,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3871,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.4,
"draw": 21.8,
"home": 51.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Emmen"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.46
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Emmen Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.58,
"market_odds": 2.46,
"model_odds": 1.93,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 11.2,
"value_pct": 27.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 80.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 90.0,
"no_prob": 26.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 73.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.64,
"home_expected": 2.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Emmen or Draw",
"prob": 73.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Emmen or Roda",
"prob": 78.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Roda",
"prob": 48.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Emmen or Roda",
"pick_prob": 78.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.5,
"draw_pct": 21.8,
"home_pct": 51.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Emmen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.94,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 75.3,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 75.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.94,
"under_prob": 24.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.5,
"implied_prob": 40.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Emmen Win",
"model_prob": 51.8,
"odds": 2.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Roda",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.62,
"draw": 24.67,
"home": 38.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 18:01:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 17:33:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Emmen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.71,
"gap_pp": 13.08,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 51.78
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.67,
"gap_pp": -2.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.62,
"gap_pp": -10.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.44
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.54,
"gap_pp": 13.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 75.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"gap_pp": -13.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 24.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.46,
"early": 2.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.86,
"early": 3.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.16,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.084,
"model_prob_pct": 8.4,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0686,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0686,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Emmen",
"sort_key": 10211.74,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 75.3,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 24.7,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 26.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 805.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"alert_team": "Emmen",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.03,
"hero_label": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"market_team": "Emmen",
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_team": "Emmen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.03,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.64,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.3,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.3,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.64 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +70%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"steam_team": "Emmen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emmen 2.30 xG vs Roda 1.64 \u2192 Emmen 51.7%",
"Market: Emmen ~38.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Emmen odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emmen, but the market has moved away from Emmen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob": 51.74,
"label": "Emmen",
"market_prob": 38.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob": 21.8,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob": 26.46,
"label": "Roda",
"market_prob": 36.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 75.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 24.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.74,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.71,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Emmen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Emmen\u0027s win probability at 51.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 38.7%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Emmen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emmen 2.30 xG vs Roda 1.64 \u2192 Emmen 51.7%",
"Market: Emmen ~38.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Emmen odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emmen, but the market has moved away from Emmen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.03,
"hero_label": "Emmen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Emmen odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Emmen more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Emmen (\u2191 +4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/14) supports the current market view on Emmen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 25.3 pp (at 51.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 25.3,
"max_prob_pct": 51.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Emmen",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.0,
"lead": "The model rates Emmen considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.03,
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.74,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.87,
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.16,
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Roda",
"market_prob_pct": 36.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Emmen (38.7%).",
"Emmen odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.3%, 11/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Emmen, Market \u2192 Emmen, while Emmen odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.65,
"closing_odds": 2.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.65,
"entry_odds": 2.46,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Emmen (4.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.46",
"2.41",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.46 \u2192 2.14 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 48m",
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.46,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/14 sportsbooks on Emmen",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved away from Emmen while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Emmen",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Emmen",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Roda",
"away_team_id": 414,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/414.webp",
"away_team_name": "Roda",
"away_team_slug": "roda",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551738,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Emmen",
"home_team_id": 208,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/208.webp",
"home_team_name": "Emmen",
"home_team_slug": "emmen",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-07 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Emmen",
"venue_name": "De Oude Meerdijk"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3813,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0388,
"ev": -0.1487,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.2644,
"p_final": 0.3274
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.287,
"best_odd": 3.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.2177,
"p_final": 0.2384
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3617,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0473,
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"p_final": 0.4344
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.1202,
"ev": -0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.2644
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.86,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1595,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"model_prob": 0.2177
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.1113,
"ev": 0.2739,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.5178
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.94,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0686,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
"draw_prob": 0.2177,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5178,
"over_prob": 0.753,
"total_xg": 3.94,
"under_prob": 0.247,
"xg_diff": 0.66
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0473,
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Emmen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.753,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551738,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0686,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2644,
"draw": 0.2177,
"home": 0.5178
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Roda",
"home": "Emmen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028417,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Emmen",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551738,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-07T18:01:26.171752+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Emmen & Roda!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Eerste Divisie — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Emmen | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Volendam | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | FC OSS | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Waalwijk | 7 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Volendam | 7 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Emmen | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Almere City FC | 7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 16 |
| 8 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | NAC Breda | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 7 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | FC OSS | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| 20 | Roda | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 12 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 7 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 9 |
| 2 | Heracles | 7 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 18 |
| 3 | Emmen | 7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 12 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 7 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 10 |
| 5 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 13 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 7 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 16 |
| 11 | Roda | 7 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 12 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 4 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 7 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 8 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 7 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 4 |
