AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Saprissa win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Deportivo Saprissa Deportivo Saprissa ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Saprissa | 36.6% | 53.6% | -17.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| CS Herediano | 33.8% | 17.5% | +16.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Deportivo Saprissa's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Deportivo Saprissa win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Saprissa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Saprissa higher (53.6% vs model 36.6%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Saprissa win 2–0).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
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Sep 20, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · CS Herediano 33.8%
- xG · Deportivo Saprissa 1.33 — CS Herediano 1.27
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Sep 20, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Saprissa 1.76 · Draw 3.29 · CS Herediano 5.44
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 53.8% · Draw 28.8% · CS Herediano 17.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Saprissa 1.77 · Draw 3.28 · CS Herediano 5.43
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 53.6% · Draw 28.9% · CS Herediano 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Saprissa win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Costa Rica — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartaginés | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | AD San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Municipal Pérez Zeledón | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartaginés | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | AD San Carlos | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Municipal Pérez Zeledón | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
