AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Saprissa win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Deportivo Saprissa Deportivo Saprissa ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Saprissa | 44.3% | 77.7% | -33.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 14.8% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| AD San Carlos | 26.6% | 7.5% | +19.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Deportivo Saprissa's win probability at 77.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 33.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Deportivo Saprissa win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Deportivo Saprissa attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Saprissa higher (77.6% vs model 44.3%, 33.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Saprissa win 2–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · AD San Carlos 26.7%
- xG · Deportivo Saprissa 1.49 — AD San Carlos 1.11
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Saprissa 1.22 · Draw 6.40 · AD San Carlos 12.58
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 77.7% · Draw 14.8% · AD San Carlos 7.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Saprissa 1.22 · Draw 6.40 · AD San Carlos 12.58
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Saprissa 77.7% · Draw 14.8% · AD San Carlos 7.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Saprissa win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (33 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Deportivo Saprissa & AD San Carlos!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Costa Rica — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartaginés | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | AD San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Municipal Pérez Zeledón | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartaginés | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | AD San Carlos | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Municipal Pérez Zeledón | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
