The model missed the final outcome (Žilina win 3–1).
The model had projected Podbrezová at 52.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Podbrezová Žilina ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Žilina | 22.5% | 50.8% | -28.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.6% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Podbrezová | 52.1% | 21.6% | +30.6 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Podbrezová's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.6%, a difference of 30.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Žilina win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.03) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Podbrezová; match finished Žilina
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Podbrezová by 30.6 percentage points (21.5% vs model 52.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Žilina 22.5% · Draw 25.4% · Podbrezová 52.1%
- xG · Žilina 1.17 — Podbrezová 1.86
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Žilina 1.87 · Draw 3.44 · Podbrezová 4.41
- Implied 1X2 · Žilina 50.8% · Draw 27.6% · Podbrezová 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Žilina 1.87 · Draw 3.44 · Podbrezová 4.41
- Implied 1X2 · Žilina 50.8% · Draw 27.6% · Podbrezová 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Žilina win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Žilina & Podbrezová!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Super Liga Slovakia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trencin | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
