The model missed the final outcome (Spartak Trnava win 1–2).
The model had projected Komárno at 57.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Komárno Spartak Trnava ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 1-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Komárno | 57.8% | 31.1% | +26.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.3% | 28.6% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Spartak Trnava | 19.9% | 40.3% | -20.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Komárno's win probability at 57.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 26.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Spartak Trnava win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.47) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Komárno; match finished Spartak Trnava
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Komárno by 26.7 percentage points (31.1% vs model 57.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Komárno 57.8% · Draw 22.3% · Spartak Trnava 19.9%
- xG · Komárno 2.21 — Spartak Trnava 1.26
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Komárno 3.06 · Draw 3.33 · Spartak Trnava 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Komárno 31.1% · Draw 28.6% · Spartak Trnava 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Komárno 3.06 · Draw 3.33 · Spartak Trnava 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · Komárno 31.1% · Draw 28.6% · Spartak Trnava 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spartak Trnava win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
44/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
12/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Spartak Trnava win · Komárno 1–2 Spartak Trnava
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.649,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_win_prob": 0.578,
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"over_25_prob": 0.674,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Spartak Trnava and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Kom\u00e1rno",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Spartak Trnava"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
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"bet_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"confidence": 57.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Kom\u00e1rno",
"edge": 0.2671,
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"pick_type": "winner",
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Kom\u00e1rno"
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{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Kom\u00e1rno Win",
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.22,
"market_odds": 3.06,
"model_odds": 1.73,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 25.1,
"value_pct": 76.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
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"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 89.0,
"no_prob": 35.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 64.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 2.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kom\u00e1rno or Draw",
"prob": 80.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kom\u00e1rno or Spartak Trnava",
"prob": 77.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Spartak Trnava",
"prob": 42.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Kom\u00e1rno or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 19.9,
"draw_pct": 22.3,
"home_pct": 57.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kom\u00e1rno"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.47,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 67.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.47,
"under_prob": 32.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 76.9,
"implied_prob": 32.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Kom\u00e1rno Win",
"model_prob": 57.8,
"odds": 3.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.32,
"draw": 28.58,
"home": 31.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 16:59:22",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 16:29:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.1,
"gap_pp": 26.71,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 57.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.58,
"gap_pp": -6.3,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.32,
"gap_pp": -20.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.96,
"gap_pp": 18.44,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.04,
"gap_pp": -18.44,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 32.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.33,
"early": 3.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.32,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.96,
"early": 1.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.96,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.88,
"early": 1.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.04,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
}
},
"home_xg": 2.21,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 3.1,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Kom\u00e1rno",
"edge": 25.5,
"ev": 79.2,
"probability": 57.8
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0986,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.9,
"text": "+9.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0986,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.9,
"text": "+9.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"sort_key": 10238.74,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 67.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 35.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"alert_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.7,
"hero_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"market_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"model_prob_pct": 57.8,
"model_team": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7689,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Kom\u00e1rno at 57.8% vs market 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Kom\u00e1rno as the stronger side (57.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kom\u00e1rno \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +77% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551522 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +77% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 42,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.7,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.95"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.95
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "1/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07142857142857142,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.7,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 42,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.7,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.21,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.21,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +64%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"steam_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7689,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Kom\u00e1rno at 57.8% vs market 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Kom\u00e1rno as the stronger side (57.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kom\u00e1rno \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +77% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551522 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +77% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 42,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.7,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.95"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.95
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kom\u00e1rno 2.21 xG vs Spartak Trnava 1.26 \u2192 Kom\u00e1rno 57.8%",
"Market: Spartak Trnava ~31.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Spartak Trnava odds \u2191 +8.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kom\u00e1rno, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 26.7,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"market_prob": 31.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.29,
"fair_prob": 22.29,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.42,
"fair_prob": 19.9,
"label": "Spartak Trnava",
"market_prob": 40.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 26.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 57.8,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Spartak Trnava"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Kom\u00e1rno\u0027s win probability at 57.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 26.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 26.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 26.7,
"model_prob_pct": 57.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 42,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Kom\u00e1rno \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+26.7 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kom\u00e1rno 2.21 xG vs Spartak Trnava 1.26 \u2192 Kom\u00e1rno 57.8%",
"Market: Spartak Trnava ~31.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Spartak Trnava odds \u2191 +8.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kom\u00e1rno, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.7,
"hero_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Spartak Trnava odds lengthened \u2191 +8.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.5 pp (at 57.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.5,
"max_prob_pct": 57.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"largest_gap_pp": 26.7,
"lead": "The model rates Kom\u00e1rno considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 26.7,
"edge_pp": 26.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 57.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.29,
"edge_pp": -6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.29,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -20.42,
"edge_pp": -20.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Spartak Trnava",
"market_prob_pct": 40.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Spartak Trnava (31.1%).",
"Spartak Trnava odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.2%, 1/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kom\u00e1rno, Market \u2192 Spartak Trnava, while Spartak Trnava odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.68,
"closing_odds": 3.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.68,
"entry_odds": 3.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "1/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Spartak Trnava (8.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.29",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 2.08 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 25m",
"pick_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.36,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Spartak Trnava",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/14",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Spartak Trnava",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Spartak Trnava",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Spartak Trnava",
"away_team_id": 1120,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1120.webp",
"away_team_name": "Spartak Trnava",
"away_team_slug": "spartak-trnava",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1551522,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"home_team_id": 10535,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10535.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"home_team_slug": "komarno",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "Super Liga Slovakia",
"league_id": 332,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/332.webp",
"league_name": "Super Liga Slovakia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3123,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0637,
"ev": -0.1987,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4032,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.1992,
"p_final": 0.3395
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2716,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1054,
"implied_prob": 0.2858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4032,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.2227,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1798,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.048,
"ev": 0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4032,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"p_final": 0.359
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.2245,
"ev": -0.5299,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.1992
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0776,
"ev": -0.2583,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2227
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": 0.2513,
"ev": 0.7689,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.5781
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.47,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7689,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0986,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.7,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7689,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Kom\u00e1rno at 57.8% vs market 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Kom\u00e1rno as the stronger side (57.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Kom\u00e1rno \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +77% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551522 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Kom\u00e1rno), but pricing still diverges by 26.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +77% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 42,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.7,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.95"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.95
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.649,
"draw_prob": 0.2227,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5781,
"over_prob": 0.674,
"total_xg": 3.47,
"under_prob": 0.326,
"xg_diff": 0.95
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.048,
"ev": 0.0986,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kom\u00e1rno"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.649,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.674,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551522,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0986,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1992,
"draw": 0.2227,
"home": 0.5781
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Spartak Trnava",
"home": "Kom\u00e1rno"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.068401,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kom\u00e1rno",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0986,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5781,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551522,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T16:59:24.902270+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Super Liga Slovakia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trencin | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
