The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Slavia Sofia at 50.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Slavia Sofia Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 50.1% | 29.3% | +20.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.7% | 31.6% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 26.2% | 39.1% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Slavia Sofia's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.3%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Slavia Sofia; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Slavia Sofia by 20.8 percentage points (29.3% vs model 50.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 50.0% · Draw 23.8% · Lokomotiv Sofia 26.2%
- xG · Slavia Sofia 2.04 — Lokomotiv Sofia 1.45
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 3.25 · Draw 3.02 · Lokomotiv Sofia 2.44
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 29.3% · Draw 31.6% · Lokomotiv Sofia 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 3.25 · Draw 3.02 · Lokomotiv Sofia 2.44
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 29.3% · Draw 31.6% · Lokomotiv Sofia 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
47/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Slavia Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Lokomotiv Sofia and -3.5 goals",
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
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{
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"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": 19.2,
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 76.5,
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"home_score_rate": 87.0,
"no_prob": 32.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 67.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.45,
"home_expected": 2.04,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 9.2
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.0
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{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 6.5
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Slavia Sofia or Draw",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Slavia Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia",
"prob": 76.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia",
"prob": 49.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Slavia Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia",
"pick_prob": 76.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.2,
"draw_pct": 23.7,
"home_pct": 50.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.49,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 67.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.49,
"under_prob": 32.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 62.8,
"implied_prob": 30.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Slavia Sofia Win",
"model_prob": 50.1,
"odds": 3.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.08,
"draw": 31.58,
"home": 29.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 16:00:49",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 15:33:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.34,
"gap_pp": 20.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 50.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.58,
"gap_pp": -7.81,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.08,
"gap_pp": -12.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.89,
"gap_pp": 20.81,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.11,
"gap_pp": -20.81,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.25,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.34,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
"early": 3.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 2.44,
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"implied_closing_pct": 39.08,
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},
{
"closing": 2.05,
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},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
}
},
"home_xg": 2.04,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 3.07,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Slavia Sofia",
"edge": 17.5,
"ev": 53.5,
"probability": 50.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0927,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.3,
"text": "+9.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0927,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.3,
"text": "+9.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"sort_key": 10233.43,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 67.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 32.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 67.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 20.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 20.76,
"hero_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"market_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"model_prob_pct": 50.1,
"model_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Slavia Sofia at 50.0% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Slavia Sofia as the stronger side (50.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slavia Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Slavia Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +63% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551066 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +63% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 45,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3076923076923077,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 45,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 20.76,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 20.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.04,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.04,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +51%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Slavia Sofia at 50.0% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Slavia Sofia as the stronger side (50.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slavia Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Slavia Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +63% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551066 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +63% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 45,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slavia Sofia 2.04 xG vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1.45 \u2192 Slavia Sofia 50.1%",
"Market: Lokomotiv Sofia ~29.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Slavia Sofia, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 20.76,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob": 29.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.84,
"fair_prob": 23.74,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.92,
"fair_prob": 26.16,
"label": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"market_prob": 39.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 20.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.1,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.34,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Slavia Sofia\u0027s win probability at 50.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.3%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 20.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.8,
"model_prob_pct": 50.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 45,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slavia Sofia 2.04 xG vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1.45 \u2192 Slavia Sofia 50.1%",
"Market: Lokomotiv Sofia ~29.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Slavia Sofia, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 20.76,
"hero_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -8.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 20.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.9 pp (at 50.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.9,
"max_prob_pct": 50.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"largest_gap_pp": 20.8,
"lead": "The model rates Slavia Sofia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 20.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 20.76,
"edge_pp": 20.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.1,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 29.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.84,
"edge_pp": -7.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.92,
"edge_pp": -12.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 39.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lokomotiv Sofia (29.3%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.8%, 4/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Slavia Sofia, Market \u2192 Lokomotiv Sofia, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.77,
"closing_odds": 3.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.77,
"entry_odds": 3.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "4/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (8.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.21",
"3.02"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 18m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.02,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/13",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 20.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"away_team_id": 1416,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1416.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"away_team_slug": "lokomotiv-sofia",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1551066,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"home_team_id": 854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"home_team_slug": "slavia-sofia",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pertama Bulgaria",
"league_id": 172,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/172.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pertama Bulgaria",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-31 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sofia",
"venue_name": "Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.363,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0468,
"ev": -0.1605,
"implied_prob": 0.3908,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3908,
"draw": 0.3158,
"home": 0.2934
},
"model_prob": 0.262,
"p_final": 0.344
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2649,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3908,
"draw": 0.3158,
"home": 0.2934
},
"model_prob": 0.2377,
"p_final": 0.2951
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2069,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3908,
"draw": 0.3158,
"home": 0.2934
},
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"p_final": 0.3362
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.1479,
"ev": -0.3608,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.262
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0934,
"ev": -0.2822,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2377
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.1927,
"ev": 0.6261,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.5003
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.49,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6261,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0927,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Slavia Sofia at 50.0% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Slavia Sofia as the stronger side (50.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slavia Sofia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Slavia Sofia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +63% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551066 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Slavia Sofia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +63% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 45,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.678,
"draw_prob": 0.2377,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5003,
"over_prob": 0.677,
"total_xg": 3.49,
"under_prob": 0.323,
"xg_diff": 0.59
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0927,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.678,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.677,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551066,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0927,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.262,
"draw": 0.2377,
"home": 0.5003
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"home": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037102,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Slavia Sofia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0927,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5003,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551066,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-31T16:00:52.651917+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pertama Bulgaria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
