The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Slavia Sofia at 47.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Slavia Sofia Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 47.6% | 14.2% | +33.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.2% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| CSKA Sofia | 28.5% | 63.5% | -35.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates CSKA Sofia's win probability at 63.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 35.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Slavia Sofia by 35.0 percentage points (82.6% vs model 47.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 47.6% · Draw 23.9% · CSKA Sofia 28.5%
- xG · Slavia Sofia 2.00 — CSKA Sofia 1.53
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 6.65 · Draw 4.26 · CSKA Sofia 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 14.2% · Draw 22.2% · CSKA Sofia 63.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 6.65 · Draw 4.26 · CSKA Sofia 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 14.2% · Draw 22.2% · CSKA Sofia 63.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pertama Bulgaria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
