The model missed the final outcome (Monterrey win 1–0).
The model had projected Cruz Azul at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Cruz Azul Monterrey ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 34.8% | 43.0% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.3% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Cruz Azul | 36.7% | 31.7% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Monterrey's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.8%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Monterrey win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Monterrey. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cruz Azul; match finished Monterrey
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cruz Azul by 8.1 percentage points (44.8% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Monterrey 34.9% · Draw 28.5% · Cruz Azul 36.6%
- xG · Monterrey 1.37 — Cruz Azul 1.41
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Monterrey 2.25 · Draw 3.82 · Cruz Azul 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · Monterrey 43.0% · Draw 25.3% · Cruz Azul 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Monterrey 2.25 · Draw 3.82 · Cruz Azul 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · Monterrey 43.0% · Draw 25.3% · Cruz Azul 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Monterrey win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
20/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Monterrey win · Monterrey 1–0 Cruz Azul
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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{
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{
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}
]
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1141,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 42.1,
"sort_key": 10047.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.9
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.9,
"text": "+0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0089,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.9,
"text": "+0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cruz Azul",
"sort_key": 5207.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "Cruz Azul",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.14,
"hero_label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 31.7,
"market_team": "Monterrey",
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"model_team": "Cruz Azul",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.14,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "Cruz Azul",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Monterrey 1.37 xG vs Cruz Azul 1.41 \u2192 Cruz Azul 36.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~31.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Cruz Azul odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul, but the market has moved away from Cruz Azul.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob": 34.84,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 28.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 36.66,
"label": "Cruz Azul",
"market_prob": 31.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 47.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.69,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.84,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cruz Azul"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Monterrey\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.8%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cruz Azul",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Monterrey 1.37 xG vs Cruz Azul 1.41 \u2192 Cruz Azul 36.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~31.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Cruz Azul odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul, but the market has moved away from Cruz Azul.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.14,
"hero_label": "Monterrey",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cruz Azul odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Cruz Azul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Monterrey. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Monterrey. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Cruz Azul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Monterrey above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Cruz Azul has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Cruz Azul."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Monterrey",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Monterrey higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.14,
"edge_pp": -8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.84,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.95,
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cruz Azul",
"market_prob_pct": 31.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Cruz Azul \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Monterrey (31.7%).",
"However, Cruz Azul has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cruz Azul, Market \u2192 Monterrey, while Cruz Azul odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Cruz Azul (14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.00",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.54 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 46m",
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.05,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Cruz Azul",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Cruz Azul while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Cruz Azul",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Cruz Azul",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Cruz Azul",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cruz-azul",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cruz Azul",
"away_team_id": 2295,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2295.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cruz Azul",
"away_team_public_id": "4j3AZBvK9QW0V7",
"away_team_slug": "cruz-azul",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550970,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Monterrey",
"home_team_id": 2282,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2282.webp",
"home_team_name": "Monterrey",
"home_team_public_id": "08rbWoVnA8qNux",
"home_team_slug": "monterrey",
"ht.home_team_slug": "monterrey",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Mexico",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Mexico",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 01:10:00",
"public_id": "1SLOUgUlJ44DVQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Monterrey",
"venue_name": "Estadio BBVA"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2778,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0089,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"p_final": 0.3308
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2857,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2531,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.285,
"p_final": 0.2622
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3952,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3171,
"draw": 0.2531,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3486,
"p_final": 0.3977
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3664
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.285
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0959,
"ev": -0.2157,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3486
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3971,
"alpha_yes": 0.546,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0369,
"edge_yes": -0.0369,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0525,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0422,
"ev_yes": -0.1141,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1067,
"implied_no": 0.3841,
"implied_yes": 0.6159,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3971,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3991
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.546,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5955
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3991,
"p_final_yes": 0.5955,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5288,
"alpha_under": 0.3846,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": -0.0582,
"edge_under": 0.0582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1268,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.116,
"ev_under": 0.1281,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0202,
"implied_over": 0.5842,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5822,
"implied_under": 0.4158,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4178,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5288,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5525
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3846,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4394
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5525,
"p_final_under": 0.4394,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1281,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1281,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cruz Azul, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.579,
"draw_prob": 0.285,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3664,
"over_prob": 0.526,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"under_prob": 0.474,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0089,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cruz Azul"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3971,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3846,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3971,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3991
},
"p_final": 0.3991,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0422,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.546,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5955
}
},
"edge": 0.0369,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3841,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3846,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.4178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5288,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5525
},
"p_final": 0.4394,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0202,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3846,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4394
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550970,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1281,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3664,
"draw": 0.285,
"home": 0.3486
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cruz Azul",
"home": "Monterrey"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060719,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0089,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3664,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3278688524590164,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1175,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550970,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T01:09:07.231747+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Monterrey & Cruz Azul!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga MX Mexico — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | Leon | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club América | 8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | Leon | 9 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 14 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
