AI correctly predicted the Karlsruher SC win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 31.0% | 24.8% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Karlsruher SC | 39.5% | 51.3% | -11.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Karlsruher SC's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Karlsruher SC win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Karlsruher SC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Karlsruher SC higher (51.4% vs model 39.5%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Karlsruher SC win 1–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Preußen Münster 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Karlsruher SC 39.5%
- xG · Preußen Münster 1.21 — Karlsruher SC 1.39
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Preußen Münster 3.83 · Draw 3.98 · Karlsruher SC 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · Preußen Münster 24.8% · Draw 23.9% · Karlsruher SC 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Preußen Münster 3.83 · Draw 3.98 · Karlsruher SC 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · Preußen Münster 24.8% · Draw 23.9% · Karlsruher SC 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karlsruher SC win · 1–2
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FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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