Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan Fenix kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Anggaran saksama dan harga pasaran berbeza secara sederhana. Pantau sebelum sepak mula.
Anggaran saksama menunjukkan kelebihan sederhana berbanding harga pasaran semasa pada Colón.
Aktiviti pasaran sejajar dengan jurang harga terbesar pada Colón.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colón | 40.42% | 31.4% | +9.0 pp |
| Seri | 29.44% | 31.13% | -1.7 pp |
| Fenix | 30.14% | 37.47% | -7.3 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
Colón market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on Colón
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Fenix",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fenix"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0915,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
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"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.4,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 3.05
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
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"odd": 2.95
},
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.93
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{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
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"odd": 2.93
},
{
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"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.05,
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"display_market": "Col\u00f3n Win",
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"label": "Home",
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"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 10.0,
"prob_edge": 7.7,
"value_pct": 23.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
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"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 11,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
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"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
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"prob": 8.8
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
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{
"away": 0,
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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{
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fenix",
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"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"edge": 23.5,
"implied_prob": 32.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Col\u00f3n Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 3.05
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1985,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1111,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.1,
"text": "+11.1%"
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"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.7,
"text": "-19.7%"
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"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 1.3,
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"tier": "lean"
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.02,
"hero_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"market_team": "Fenix",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.02,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 31.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.69,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.33,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Fenix",
"market_prob": 37.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.56,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": -9.56,
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"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.36,
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"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.99,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.99,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 9.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Col\u00f3n, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Fenix remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.02,
"hero_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
"Recent line movement on Col\u00f3n (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/11) supports the current market view on Col\u00f3n."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 9.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 31.4,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.13,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fenix",
"market_prob_pct": 37.47,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fenix (31.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Col\u00f3n, Market \u2192 Fenix, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/11",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2357,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2357.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fenix",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1550639,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_id": 15628,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15628.webp",
"home_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_id": 269,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/269.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4003,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.161,
"implied_prob": 0.3747,
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3453
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4384,
"best_odd": 2.925,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.3113,
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3887,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3493
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"edge_no": -0.0799,
"edge_yes": 0.0799,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1985,
"ev_yes": 0.1111,
"implied_no": 0.5379,
"implied_yes": 0.4621,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.42,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"edge_over": 0.0956,
"edge_under": -0.0956,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1664,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"implied_over": 0.3864,
"implied_under": 0.6136,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1664,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0799,
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0956,
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1550639,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1664,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fenix",
"home": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550639,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:50:59.095516+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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