AI correctly predicted the Cúcuta win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cúcuta Cúcuta ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cúcuta | 41.6% | 39.5% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 33.2% | 30.2% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Llaneros FC | 25.2% | 30.3% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Llaneros FC's win probability at 30.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Cúcuta win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cúcuta higher (46.8% vs model 41.6%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cúcuta win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cúcuta 41.6% · Draw 33.2% · Llaneros FC 25.2%
- xG · Cúcuta 1.19 — Llaneros FC 0.87
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cúcuta 2.42 · Draw 3.16 · Llaneros FC 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Cúcuta 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Llaneros FC 30.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cúcuta 2.42 · Draw 3.16 · Llaneros FC 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Cúcuta 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Llaneros FC 30.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cúcuta win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cúcuta win · Cúcuta 2–1 Llaneros FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"alert_team": "Llaneros FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.2,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta)."
},
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"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
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},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.16,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -12.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.19,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 0.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -12%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"steam_team": "Llaneros FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta 1.19 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.87 \u2192 C\u00facuta 41.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00facuta with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob": 41.63,
"label": "C\u00facuta",
"market_prob": 39.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob": 33.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob": 25.16,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob": 30.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.31,
"fair_prob": 34.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.31,
"fair_prob": 66.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.42,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.42,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.16,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.32,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Llaneros FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Llaneros FC\u0027s win probability at 30.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "C\u00facuta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "C\u00facuta \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta 1.19 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.87 \u2192 C\u00facuta 41.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00facuta with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.16,
"hero_label": "Llaneros FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Llaneros FC odds lengthened \u2191 +13.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Llaneros FC above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Llaneros FC (\u2191 +13.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Llaneros FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 41.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 41.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Llaneros FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Llaneros FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.17,
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "C\u00facuta",
"market_prob_pct": 39.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.99,
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.16,
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.16,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers C\u00facuta (39.5%).",
"However, Llaneros FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.8%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"C\u00facuta \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.75,
"closing_odds": 3.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.75,
"entry_odds": 3.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Llaneros FC (13.8%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.10",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.68 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 30m",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.15,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Llaneros FC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Llaneros FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_id": 1464,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1464.webp",
"away_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0QMkymxA6UlS9K",
"away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549796,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "C\u00facuta",
"home_team_id": 1470,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1470.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u00facuta",
"home_team_public_id": "0JP87qGh7lE8RW",
"home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:15:00",
"public_id": "0vO0GYJbcCoLjc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "C\u00facuta",
"venue_name": "Estadio General Santander"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2768,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.0899,
"implied_prob": 0.3032,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.2517,
"p_final": 0.2889
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2866,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.3022,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.332,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4353,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"p_final": 0.4041
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.2072,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.2517
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": 0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.4163
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3057,
"alpha_yes": 0.3057,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0842,
"edge_yes": -0.0842,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_no": 0.4948,
"implied_yes": 0.5052,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5204
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4796
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5204,
"p_final_yes": 0.4796,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2952,
"alpha_under": 0.3248,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.095,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.675,
"edge_over": -0.1031,
"edge_under": 0.1031,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1337,
"ev_under": 0.1352,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0125,
"implied_over": 0.4431,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4443,
"implied_under": 0.5569,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5557,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.5557,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.5896
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4135,
"p_final_under": 0.5896,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.421,
"draw_prob": 0.332,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4163,
"over_prob": 0.34,
"total_xg": 2.06,
"under_prob": 0.66,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u00facuta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"market_prob": 0.4946,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5204
},
"p_final": 0.5204,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4796
}
},
"edge": 0.0842,
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"market_prob": 0.5557,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.66,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.5896,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0125,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.5557,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.5896
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1031,
"ev": 0.1352,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549796,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1352,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2517,
"draw": 0.332,
"home": 0.4163
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Llaneros FC",
"home": "C\u00facuta"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089232,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1352,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.66,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549796,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T23:14:06.583056+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Cúcuta & Llaneros FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera A Colombia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Chico | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
