AI correctly predicted the Real Soacha Cundinamarca win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Real Soacha Cundinamarca Real Soacha Cundinamarca ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 42.4% | 52.3% | -9.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.2% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Quindio | 28.4% | 19.5% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Real Soacha Cundinamarca's win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Real Soacha Cundinamarca win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Real Soacha Cundinamarca. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Real Soacha Cundinamarca higher (52.3% vs model 42.4%, 9.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Real Soacha Cundinamarca win 3–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Quindio 28.4%
- xG · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.45 — Quindio 1.15
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.73 · Draw 3.20 · Quindio 4.64
- Implied 1X2 · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 52.3% · Draw 28.2% · Quindio 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.73 · Draw 3.20 · Quindio 4.64
- Implied 1X2 · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 52.3% · Draw 28.2% · Quindio 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Soacha Cundinamarca win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
50/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Soacha Cundinamarca win · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 3–1 Quindio
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "3/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.7%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"execution_confidence": 84,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
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"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Soacha Cundinamarca at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Soacha Cundinamarca as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Real Soacha Cundinamarca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549641 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1834,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2672,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.89,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"steam_team": "Quindio",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3179,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Soacha Cundinamarca at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Soacha Cundinamarca as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Real Soacha Cundinamarca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549641 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1834,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2672,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.45 xG vs Quindio 1.15 \u2192 Real Soacha Cundinamarca 42.4%",
"Market: Real Soacha Cundinamarca ~52.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Quindio odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Real Soacha Cundinamarca with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.89,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"market_prob": 52.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.88,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Quindio",
"market_prob": 19.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.06,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.06,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"market_prob_pct": 52.26,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Quindio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Real Soacha Cundinamarca\u0027s win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.9,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1.45 xG vs Quindio 1.15 \u2192 Real Soacha Cundinamarca 42.4%",
"Market: Real Soacha Cundinamarca ~52.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Quindio odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Real Soacha Cundinamarca with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.89,
"hero_label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Quindio odds lengthened \u2191 +16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Quindio has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Real Soacha Cundinamarca. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Quindio \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Real Soacha Cundinamarca. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Quindio has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Quindio \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Real Soacha Cundinamarca above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Quindio has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Real Soacha Cundinamarca higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.89,
"edge_pp": -9.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"market_prob_pct": 52.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.01,
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.88,
"edge_pp": 8.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Quindio",
"market_prob_pct": 19.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Quindio \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Real Soacha Cundinamarca (52.3%).",
"However, Quindio has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.7%, 3/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Real Soacha Cundinamarca \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Quindio (16.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.64",
"3.82",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.92 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"pick_team": "Quindio",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
4.64,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Quindio",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Quindio",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Quindio",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Quindio",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "quindio",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Quindio",
"away_team_id": 1461,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1461.webp",
"away_team_name": "Quindio",
"away_team_public_id": "4GX5HPqjxnQER2",
"away_team_slug": "quindio",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549641,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"home_team_id": 22099,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22099.webp",
"home_team_name": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"home_team_public_id": "08hBKPR8lihEAB",
"home_team_slug": "real-soacha",
"ht.home_team_slug": "real-soacha",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_id": 240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/240.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1UzUWXxQJJ2nW3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-21 22:00:00",
"public_id": "3NiC3FHbaipswU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mosquera",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Mosquera"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1732,
"best_odd": 4.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0242,
"implied_prob": 0.1949,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1949,
"draw": 0.2825,
"home": 0.5226
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2103
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2956,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1949,
"draw": 0.2825,
"home": 0.5226
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2854
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5109,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0506,
"ev": -0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1949,
"draw": 0.2825,
"home": 0.5226
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.472
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.64,
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.3179,
"implied_prob": 0.2155,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.0645,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.1544,
"ev": -0.2671,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2235,
"alpha_yes": 0.2031,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0606,
"edge_yes": 0.0606,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1702,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1053,
"ev_yes": 0.0511,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"implied_no": 0.5216,
"implied_yes": 0.4784,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2235,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5113
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4874
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5113,
"p_final_yes": 0.4874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1599,
"alpha_under": 0.2199,
"best_over_odd": 2.36,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.26,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.555,
"edge_over": 0.0734,
"edge_under": -0.0734,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1375,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0519,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"implied_over": 0.4086,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4076,
"implied_under": 0.5914,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5924,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4195
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.5924,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.576
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4195,
"p_final_under": 0.576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3179,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1375,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3179,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Real Soacha Cundinamarca at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Real Soacha Cundinamarca as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Real Soacha Cundinamarca \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549641 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Real Soacha Cundinamarca).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1834,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2672,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0506,
"ev": -0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.4743,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2235,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5113
},
"p_final": 0.4874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4874
}
},
"edge": 0.0606,
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.4076,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
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"p_final": 0.4195
},
"p_final": 0.4195,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.5924,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.576
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0734,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549641,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1375,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Quindio",
"home": "Real Soacha Cundinamarca"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.046392,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1834,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2672,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549641,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T21:59:19.770440+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera B Colombia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 56 |
| 2 | Real Cartagena | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | Envigado | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 4 | Quindio | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Bogota FC | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 8 | Independiente Yumbo | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 9 | Patriotas Boyacá | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Barranquilla | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 34 |
| 11 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 12 | Universitario de Popayán | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 27 |
| 13 | Orsomarso SC | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 26 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 32 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 54 |
| 2 | Envigado | 32 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 54 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 29 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 48 |
| 4 | Internacional Palmira | 30 | 39 | 27 | +12 | 56 |
| 5 | Barranquilla | 31 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 34 |
| 6 | Quindio | 30 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 51 |
| 7 | Tigres FC | 31 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 42 |
| 8 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 25 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 33 |
| 9 | Patriotas Boyacá | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 34 |
| 10 | Universitario de Popayán | 24 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Bogota FC | 30 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 37 |
| 12 | Depor FC | 25 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Independiente Yumbo | 24 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 36 |
| 14 | Real Santander | 25 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 19 |
| 15 | Orsomarso SC | 23 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 26 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 24 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 19 |
