The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Envigado at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Envigado Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Envigado; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Envigado 1.48 — Leones FC 1.12
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Envigado 1–1 Leones FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"fair_odds_away": 3.69,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Envigado or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"percent_home": "45%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"edge": -0.1128,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.67
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.81,
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"model_odds": 2.28,
"overround": 10.2,
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"value_pct": -26.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 67.4,
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"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 77.2,
"no_prob": 46.4,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Envigado or Draw",
"prob": 72.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Envigado or Leones FC",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Leones FC",
"prob": 56.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Envigado or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.1,
"draw_pct": 29.1,
"home_pct": 43.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Envigado"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 43.1,
"implied_prob": 18.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Leones FC Win",
"model_prob": 27.1,
"odds": 5.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.0,
"ev": -0.0775,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.48,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"alpha": 0.1958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0169,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
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"no": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.464,
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},
"p_final": 0.4665,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
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"value_side": "yes",
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.188,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-18.8%"
},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+12.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0111,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
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"alpha": 0.207,
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"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
"alpha": 0.2277,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10076.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1842,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0168,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Envigado",
"sort_key": 1795.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Leones FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Envigado",
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_team": "Envigado",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4305,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Envigado \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549629 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1842,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.48,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.48,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.48 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Leones FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4305,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Envigado \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549629 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1842,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Envigado 1.48 xG vs Leones FC 1.12 \u2192 Envigado 43.8%",
"Market Drift: Leones FC odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Envigado with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 43.84,
"label": "Envigado",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "Leones FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.4,
"fair_prob": 53.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.4,
"fair_prob": 46.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Envigado",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.2,
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Envigado \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Envigado 1.48 xG vs Leones FC 1.12 \u2192 Envigado 43.8%",
"Market Drift: Leones FC odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Envigado with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Leones FC odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.8 pp (at 43.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Envigado",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Leones FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Envigado (43.8%).",
"However, Leones FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 6/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Envigado \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 20.0,
"entry_odds": 5.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Leones FC (11.1%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.75",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.28 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"pick_team": "Leones FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.28"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on Leones FC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Leones FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Leones FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Leones FC",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Leones FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "leones-fc-1143",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Leones FC",
"away_team_id": 1143,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1143.webp",
"away_team_name": "Leones FC",
"away_team_public_id": "509rZ5Z8HZzBFI",
"away_team_slug": "leones-fc-1143",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549629,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Envigado",
"home_team_id": 1129,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1129.webp",
"home_team_name": "Envigado",
"home_team_public_id": "5L0moyas0IJVbU",
"home_team_slug": "envigado",
"ht.home_team_slug": "envigado",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_id": 240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/240.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1UzUWXxQJJ2nW3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 20:30:00",
"public_id": "2i1VquLNFIEMxs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Envigado",
"venue_name": "Estadio Polideportivo Sur"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1738,
"best_odd": 4.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.1834,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1834,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.5503
},
"model_prob": 0.2709,
"p_final": 0.1986
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.289,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1834,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.5503
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.2733
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4994,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.1842,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1834,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.5503
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"p_final": 0.4945
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.28,
"edge": 0.0815,
"ev": 0.4305,
"implied_prob": 0.1894,
"model_prob": 0.2709
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": 0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.1603,
"ev": -0.2678,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.4385
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.1958,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.084,
"edge_yes": 0.084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.188,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1225,
"ev_yes": 0.1256,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0576,
"implied_no": 0.548,
"implied_yes": 0.452,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4665
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5318,
"p_final_yes": 0.4665,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.207,
"alpha_under": 0.2277,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0545,
"edge_under": -0.0545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0504,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.094,
"implied_over": 0.4275,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4286,
"implied_under": 0.5725,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5714,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4396
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2277,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5593
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4396,
"p_final_under": 0.5593,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4305,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1256,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4305,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Envigado \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549629 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1842,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.536,
"draw_prob": 0.2906,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4385,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.1842,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Envigado"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.4496,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"p_final": 0.4665,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0576,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4665
}
},
"edge": 0.084,
"ev": 0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.452,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4396
},
"p_final": 0.4396,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0504,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2277,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5593
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4275,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549629,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1256,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2709,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4385
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Leones FC",
"home": "Envigado"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.067322,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.452,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1842,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2765,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549629,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:03:28.982331+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Envigado & Leones FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera B Colombia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 56 |
| 2 | Real Cartagena | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | Envigado | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 4 | Quindio | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Bogota FC | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 8 | Independiente Yumbo | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 9 | Patriotas Boyacá | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Barranquilla | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 34 |
| 11 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 12 | Universitario de Popayán | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 27 |
| 13 | Orsomarso SC | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 26 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 32 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 54 |
| 2 | Envigado | 32 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 54 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 29 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 48 |
| 4 | Internacional Palmira | 30 | 39 | 27 | +12 | 56 |
| 5 | Barranquilla | 31 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 34 |
| 6 | Quindio | 30 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 51 |
| 7 | Tigres FC | 31 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 42 |
| 8 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 25 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 33 |
| 9 | Patriotas Boyacá | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 34 |
| 10 | Universitario de Popayán | 24 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Bogota FC | 30 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 37 |
| 12 | Depor FC | 25 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Independiente Yumbo | 24 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 36 |
| 14 | Real Santander | 25 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 19 |
| 15 | Orsomarso SC | 23 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 26 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 24 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 19 |
