The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo Garcilaso win 4–0).
The model had projected Universitario at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Universitario Deportivo Garcilaso ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.04) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Universitario; match finished Deportivo Garcilaso
Market lesson
The full-time result was Deportivo Garcilaso win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 20:08 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.40 — Universitario 1.64
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Garcilaso win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Garcilaso win · Deportivo Garcilaso 4–0 Universitario
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4184,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.379,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.622,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2679,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.39,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.73,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.19,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3137,
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"over_25_prob": 0.586,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.414
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Universitario",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Universitario"
},
"away_xg": 1.64,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Universitario",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1099,
"edge_gap": 0.1049,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.4184,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"home": 31.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.27
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 3.22
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 3.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 3.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 3.1
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.6
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.27,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Universitario Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.24,
"market_odds": 2.97,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": 11.3,
"value_pct": 36.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 80.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 62.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 62.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.64,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw",
"prob": 58.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Garcilaso or Universitario",
"prob": 73.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Universitario",
"prob": 68.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Garcilaso or Universitario",
"pick_prob": 73.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.8,
"draw_pct": 26.8,
"home_pct": 31.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Universitario"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.04,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 58.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.04,
"under_prob": 41.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 36.8,
"implied_prob": 30.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Universitario Win",
"model_prob": 41.8,
"odds": 3.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.7,
"ev": -0.34,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.11,
"model_prob_pct": 11.0,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0266,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.4321,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0113,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.4588
},
"p_final": 0.4588,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2628,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0113,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0293,
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"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.414,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3086,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.9,
"text": "-30.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2892,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 58.6,
"sort_key": 10410.28,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 41.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0224,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.5,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"p_final": 0.4777
},
"p_final": 0.5224,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0387,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0224,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2761,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.6,
"text": "-27.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1631,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.3,
"text": "+16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"sort_key": 10146.79,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 62.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0161,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Universitario",
"sort_key": 5212.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"alert_team": "Universitario",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Universitario",
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"model_team": "Universitario",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2892,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3682,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universitario at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universitario as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universitario \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549494 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.64,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.64,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.64 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +21%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"steam_team": "Universitario",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2892,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3682,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universitario at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universitario as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universitario \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549494 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.40 xG vs Universitario 1.64 \u2192 Universitario 41.8%",
"Market Drift: Universitario odds \u2191 +18.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universitario, but the market has moved away from Universitario.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.37,
"label": "Deportivo Garcilaso",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.79,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.84,
"label": "Universitario",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.31,
"fair_prob": 58.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.31,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.97,
"fair_prob": 62.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.87,
"fair_prob": 37.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Universitario",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.6,
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.40 xG vs Universitario 1.64 \u2192 Universitario 41.8%",
"Market Drift: Universitario odds \u2191 +18.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universitario, but the market has moved away from Universitario.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Universitario odds lengthened \u2191 +18.5%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.5 pp (at 41.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Garcilaso",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.79,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universitario",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Universitario (41.8%).",
"However, Universitario has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.5%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
"entry_odds": 3.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books lengthened Universitario together (18.5% drift, score 61) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"2.95",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.27 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 53m",
"pick_team": "Universitario",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.27"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Universitario odds \u2191 +18.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Universitario",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Universitario odds \u2191 +18.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from Universitario while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Universitario",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Universitario",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Universitario",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "universitario",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Universitario",
"away_team_id": 2540,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2540.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universitario",
"away_team_public_id": "3NGms6hKUZaS22",
"away_team_slug": "universitario",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_display_name": "Peru",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_id": 126,
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1549494,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Garcilaso",
"home_team_id": 20960,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20960.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Garcilaso",
"home_team_public_id": "1iVORcEDPdRbe1",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-garcilaso",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-garcilaso",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_country_display": "Peru",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Peru",
"league_id": 281,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/281.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Peru",
"league_public_id": "0rqkJd8vbYLXJ1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 23:00:00",
"public_id": "3MJ0PvJFTEHa6X",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cusco",
"venue_name": "Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.243,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2918,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"p_final": 0.3226
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.287,
"best_odd": 3.095,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2918,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.2681,
"p_final": 0.2887
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.384,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0375,
"ev": -0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.4112,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2918,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.3135,
"p_final": 0.3737
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.1126,
"ev": 0.3682,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.4184
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0396,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2681
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0639,
"ev": -0.1693,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.3135
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1842,
"alpha_yes": 0.1838,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1187,
"edge_yes": 0.1197,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2761,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.121,
"ev_yes": 0.1631,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0387,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"p_final": 0.4777
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0224,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"p_final": 0.5224
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4777,
"p_final_yes": 0.5224,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1731,
"alpha_under": 0.1904,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.155,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.1531,
"edge_under": -0.1531,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2892,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0113,
"ev_under": -0.3086,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1168,
"implied_over": 0.4329,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4321,
"implied_under": 0.5671,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0113,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.4588
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1904,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.5386
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4588,
"p_final_under": 0.5386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2892,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3682,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2892,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2892,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3682,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universitario at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universitario as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universitario \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549494 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universitario, but the model still strongly favours Universitario.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.622,
"draw_prob": 0.2681,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4184,
"over_prob": 0.586,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"under_prob": 0.414,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Universitario"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0224,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"p_final": 0.4777
},
"p_final": 0.5224,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0387,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1838,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0224,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.622,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1197,
"ev": 0.1631,
"implied_prob": 0.5023,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0266,
"market_prob": 0.4321,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": -0.0113,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.4588
},
"p_final": 0.4588,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0113,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1904,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.5386
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1531,
"ev": 0.2892,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549494,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2892,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4184,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.3135
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1631,
"implied_prob": 0.5023,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1631,
"implied_prob": 0.5023,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universitario",
"home": "Deportivo Garcilaso"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.211839,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2892,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4184,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549494,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:08:55.877444+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Peru — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 13 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 38 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 46 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 26 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 40 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 56 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 49 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 27 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Cusco FC | 27 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 41 |
| 14 | UTC | 27 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 15 |
| 15 | Sport Boys | 27 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 38 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 2.3 | 0.0 | +2.3 | 56 |
| 2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 3 | Cusco FC | 27 | 1.4 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 4 | UTC | 27 | 0.0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 15 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | — | — | — | 49 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 27 | — | — | — | 46 |
| 7 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | — | — | — | 41 |
| 8 | Cienciano | 26 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | — | — | — | 35 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 14 | Atlético Grau | 27 | — | — | — | 32 |
| 15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 17 | ADT | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
