The model missed the final outcome (Dumbarton win 2–0).
The model had projected Cove Rangers at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cove Rangers Dumbarton ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton | 32.4% | 26.6% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.2% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Cove Rangers | 38.0% | 49.2% | -11.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cove Rangers's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Dumbarton win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cove Rangers than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Cove Rangers; match finished Dumbarton
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cove Rangers by 11.2 percentage points (49.2% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dumbarton 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Cove Rangers 38.0%
- xG · Dumbarton 1.24 — Cove Rangers 1.36
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dumbarton 3.44 · Draw 3.79 · Cove Rangers 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Dumbarton 26.6% · Draw 24.2% · Cove Rangers 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Dumbarton 3.44 · Draw 3.79 · Cove Rangers 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Dumbarton 26.6% · Draw 24.2% · Cove Rangers 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dumbarton win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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