AI correctly predicted the Ross County win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Ross County Ross County ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United | 32.1% | 23.3% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 27.7% | 22.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Ross County | 40.2% | 54.5% | -14.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ross County's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.2%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Ross County win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Ross County than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ross County higher (54.5% vs model 40.2%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ross County win 0–3).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:38 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Airdrie United 32.0% · Draw 27.7% · Ross County 40.3%
- xG · Airdrie United 1.32 — Ross County 1.28
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Airdrie United 3.93 · Draw 4.12 · Ross County 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Airdrie United 23.3% · Draw 22.2% · Ross County 54.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Airdrie United 3.93 · Draw 4.12 · Ross County 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Airdrie United 23.3% · Draw 22.2% · Ross County 54.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ross County win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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